On December 1, the gold sector performed actively, with COMEX gold breaking through 4,270 during the session. The Gold Fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.05%, and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) rose by 3.08%.

Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, expectations for a December rate cut have significantly increased to over 80%. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also expressed support for a rate cut in December on Monday, advocating for more flexible policies starting from 2026. Despite the growing dovish voices, divisions within the Federal Reserve Committee remain significant. Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed a more cautious view. As of 9:00 on December 1, Fed Watch indicates the latest probability of a December rate cut exceeds 87%.

Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain highly uncertain. The United States and Ukraine held talks in Geneva on the 23rd, revising and reducing a new 28-point plan to 19 points. The 19-point plan sidelines certain disputes, which Russia finds difficult to accept. Currently, the prospects for subsequent peace talks remain highly uncertain. There are no signs of easing tensions between China and Japan, with China once again urging Japan to seriously address its solemn demands, viewing Japan's stance as ambiguous. Additionally, Trump stated that he would take action against Venezuela. The Venezuelan armed forces simultaneously conducted coastal defense exercises in states such as Anzoátegui, Carabobo, Falcón, and La Guaira. Rising geopolitical risks benefit gold's safe-haven appeal.

In the short term, several Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for rate cuts, with current expectations significantly raised to over 80%, supporting gold price increases. Geopolitically, the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain highly uncertain, China-Japan tensions show no signs of easing, and Trump's announcement of action against Venezuela contribute to rising geopolitical risks, benefiting gold's safe-haven appeal. In the medium to long term, the "Federal Reserve rate cut cycle + increased overseas uncertainty + global de-dollarization trend" continue to provide some support for gold prices. Consider accumulating positions in the Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) on dips in batches.