Fed's Milan: A 50 Basis Point Rate Cut in December Is More Appropriate

  • 2025-11-11

 

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan said on Monday local time that to prevent further weakening of economic momentum, the Fed should continue to cut interest rates in December, with the magnitude being "at least 25 basis points, but 50 basis points is more appropriate."

Recent U.S. government "shutdown" has delayed the release of multiple official data, further complicating policy decisions. Milan pointed out that existing data already show signs of slowing inflation and labor market, which is sufficient for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance than the "75 basis points total rate cuts within the year" predicted by the September dot plot.

Milan stated: "Nothing is certain. Between now and the policy meeting, if the data changes significantly, I will adjust my views. But in the absence of new information substantial enough to alter my forecast, I still believe a 50 basis point rate cut is appropriate, and as a fallback, it should not be less than 25 basis points."

San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed a more open attitude towards further rate cuts. She said that slowing wage growth indicates labor demand is cooling, and tariff increases have not boosted inflation on a broad or sustained basis.

Earlier on Monday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem expressed skepticism about further easing. He noted that the end of the federal government shutdown, fiscal support in place, the effects of previous rate cuts materializing, and regulatory relaxation would all provide a boost. Given these factors, Musalem reiterated his view that the Fed's current policy is nearing a level that no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation.

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 64.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 35.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by next January is 54.1%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 22.7%.

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