Goldman Sachs: Upgrades Forecasts for China's Export Growth and Real GDP Growth

Recently, Goldman Sachs Research team released a report stating that recent policy signals reflect China's determination and capability to further enhance the competitiveness of its advanced manufacturing sector and further boost exports. Consequently, it has upgraded its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth.

Goldman Sachs expects China's export volume to grow by 5% to 6% annually in the coming years, thereby gaining more global market share and driving overall economic expansion. For 2025, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's real GDP growth to 5.0%. Moreover, the institution's forecasts for China's real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 are significantly higher than market predictions.

Goldman Sachs stated that the negative impact of the real estate sector on GDP growth is expected to weaken, while increasing the share of consumption in China's GDP will be a gradual process. Policy easing is likely to intensify over the next 6 to 9 months, with regulators expected to continue loosening monetary policy, expanding fiscal policy, and accelerating credit growth.

Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned that RMB internationalization has become an important policy orientation for the Chinese government and could accelerate significantly in the coming years. The institution expects that with the enhanced competitiveness of high-tech manufacturing and the acceleration of RMB internationalization, Chinese stock markets will outperform and the RMB will appreciate against the US dollar. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2028, China's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will approach 5%, which, given the massive size of China's economy, would be a historic high relative to global GDP.