Successfully "Swayed" Opposition Party Before Key Vote - Is Sanae Takaichi's Bid for Japanese Prime Minister "Secured" Again?

On the 4th of this month, former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency. According to Japan's constitution, the ruling party president must also win the prime ministerial designation election to become Japan's prime minister. The 15th was originally the date for the initial prime ministerial designation election, but given the recent withdrawal of Komeito from the ruling coalition, which shocked Japan's political circles, the date for the prime ministerial designation election has been repeatedly postponed.

According to the election rules, Japan's prime ministerial designation election is held in both houses of the Diet (the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors). In the first round of voting, a candidate who receives more than half of the votes (233 seats) wins directly. If no one obtains more than half of the votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round of voting, where the candidate with the most votes wins.

Based on the current seat distribution of various parties in the House of Representatives, the ruling LDP holds 196 seats, Komeito holds 24 seats, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) holds 148 seats, the Japan Innovation Party holds 35 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) holds 27 seats. Originally, the ruling coalition formed by the LDP and Komeito (220 seats) was only 14 votes short of achieving a "majority" (233 seats). After winning on the 4th, Takaichi and her LDP immediately began "wooing" opposition parties, with the DPP, whose stance is relatively close to the LDP's, seen as the primary target. According to Japanese media reports, Takaichi promptly greeted DPP leader Yūichirō Tamaki after her victory, hoping to gain his support in the prime ministerial designation election.

However, everything changed dramatically on the 10th. On that day, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saitō conveyed to Takaichi the intention to "withdraw from the ruling coalition framework." This move not only signified the collapse of the "LDP-Komeito coalition" that had dominated Japanese politics for 26 years but also drastically increased the uncertainty surrounding Takaichi's path to becoming prime minister. Losing Komeito's 24 votes meant the LDP needed at least 48 additional votes to secure a "majority."

Based on publicly available information, Komeito presented three demands during its meeting with Takaichi: severing ties with the "black money scandal," prudently handling historical issues, and improving foreigner policies. However, the two sides had significant differences regarding political donations. Komeito demanded a thorough investigation to get to the truth and also proposed strictly limiting the recipients of corporate and organizational political donations to the party headquarters, prefectural federation branches, and party branches managed by Diet members. However, these proposals received no response from the LDP.

The collapse of the ruling coalition seemed to invigorate the opposition parties. The largest opposition party, the CDP,率先 proposed nominating DPP representative Yūichirō Tamaki as the unified opposition candidate. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda even stated that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to change history," thus intensifying mediation with other opposition forces like the Japan Innovation Party. Meanwhile, Tamaki also made high-profile appearances on various occasions, calling on all opposition parties to "unite."