Japan's Ruling Coalition Collapses, LDP May Struggle to Govern Effectively

In a meeting on October 10th, Komeito party leader Tetsuo Saito informed LDP President Sanae Takaichi of his decision to withdraw from the ruling coalition. The LDP, in turn, expressed its intention to postpone the parliamentary prime ministerial designation election until after October 20th.

Regarding the reason for ending the alliance with the LDP, Saito explained that he had not received a satisfactory response from the other party regarding reforms to address the "black money politics" issue. He also stated that he would vote for himself in the upcoming prime ministerial designation election.

The upcoming prime ministerial designation election will be held separately in the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. The Japanese Constitution stipulates that if the two houses produce different results, negotiations must be held. If no agreement can be reached, the result of the House of Representatives' election will prevail.

Similar to leadership elections within major political parties, if a candidate secures more than half of the votes in the first round, they win directly. If no candidate achieves a majority, the top two candidates will proceed to a second round to determine the winner.

Chen Yang, a young Japanese affairs scholar and visiting researcher at Liaoning University's Center for Japanese Studies, analyzed for Jiemian News that if Sanae Takaichi becomes prime minister, the absence of Komeito's checks and balances would lead to a Japanese government that is more pro-US and anti-China. If an opposition party prime minister takes office, Japan-US relations are expected to remain unchanged, but a China policy entirely different from the LDP's would likely be adopted.

Currently, weak domestic demand in Japan has led to sluggish growth in personal consumption expenditure, while foreign trade exports have shown negative growth due to Trump's tariff measures. The pressure of rising living costs on citizens is intensifying, and reliance on foreign labor has caused social舆论分裂 (public opinion fragmentation).