In the early hours of September 26, the cryptocurrency market faced another wave of intense selling pressure. Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $110,000, while Ethereum also dropped below $3,900, hitting a seven-week low. Solana fell 7.2% in a single day. Within just a few hours, the market capitalization evaporated by over $140 billion, nearly 250,000 traders were liquidated, totaling $1.1 billion, with long positions being the primary casualties. This scenario reminded investors of the so-called "September curse"—where the crypto market often struggles to escape a downturn in September.

In fact, Bitcoin recorded negative returns for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022 in September. Although exceptions occurred in 2023 and 2024, this year's trend seems to have reignited such seasonal concerns. Two sharp declines this week, combined with liquidations, have severely impacted market confidence.

Several factors contributed to this. First, institutional capital continued to withdraw. Data shows that U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of hundreds of millions of dollars, weakening the market's upward momentum. Second, the once-popular Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) concept cooled down, with mNAV premiums gradually disappearing and narrative effects fading, leading to a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, strong U.S. macroeconomic data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, putting pressure on risk assets. At the same time, hacking incidents involving two high-profile projects further amplified panic.

So, can October and the fourth quarter bring a turnaround? Some institutions remain optimistic. Coinbase and Grayscale both noted that policy support, institutional adoption, and the macroeconomic environment could support the market in the future, while the long-term value consensus for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains solid. VanEck's research shows that institutional holdings of Bitcoin far exceed its production during the same period, strengthening its scarcity due to supply-demand imbalances. On the other hand, ETH is gradually being adopted by corporate treasuries, transitioning from a peripheral asset to a key pillar of capital markets.

Overall, the current market adjustment appears more like a cooling of overheated sentiment rather than the end of the bull market. As long as Bitcoin can hold key support levels and restore its structure, a rebound in October remains possible. However, amid macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties, the market is likely to seek new directions amid fluctuations.