Probability of Retail Fuel Price Adjustment Being Postponed is High

Xinhua Finance, Beijing, September 22 – Since the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on September 9, 2025, to 24:00 on September 23, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown strong fluctuations within a range. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive but remains low. The adjustment幅度 calculated on the ninth working day is 25 yuan/ton, which falls short of the 50 yuan/ton threshold for price adjustment. With only one working day left before the price adjustment window, it is highly likely that the domestic refined oil product price adjustment will be postponed at 24:00 tomorrow (September 23).

Gao Qingcui, a refined oil analyst at SCI, stated that since the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on September 9, 2025, to 24:00 on September 23, 2025), international crude oil has generally shown a震荡偏强 trend, with a slight increase in the average price level. Although OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in October, and U.S. petroleum inventories have risen, market expectations of supply过剩 pressure remain high, limiting the upward momentum of international oil prices. However, due to renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during this period, international crude oil experienced a阶段性反弹.

Overall, crude oil prices during this cycle have shown a震荡上涨 trend, with the domestic reference crude oil change rate turning from negative to positive but remaining at a low positive level. According to SCI calculations, as of the close on September 19, the domestic reference crude oil change rate on the ninth working day was 0.59%, indicating an expected increase of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which is below the 50 yuan/ton threshold for retail fuel price adjustment.

With one working day remaining before the price adjustment window opens, Gao Qingcui further noted that although geopolitical disturbances provide some support for oil prices, weakening U.S. oil demand and the prospect of global oil market supply过剩 could lead to a potential decline in oil prices. Therefore, it is highly likely that the domestic refined oil product price adjustment at 24:00 on September 23 will be postponed.

If this adjustment is postponed, it will mark the sixth time since 2025 that the retail fuel price adjustment has been搁浅. "In the next half month (from 24:00 on September 23 to 24:00 on October 13), during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, fuel costs for residents' driving and logistics transportation will remain unchanged," Gao Qingcui said.