【Adam Theory】Chapter 3: To Succeed in the Market, We Should...

  • 2025-07-12

Regardless of the amount of capital or the timing, anyone who has ever traded the market has experienced what Mr. Certainty went through. In the following chapters, we will learn several crucial lessons, all vividly illustrated in the modern fable.  

The first lesson is the answer to the question posed earlier. If we were to ask a hundred traders, "To succeed in the market, we should...?", we would receive many different answers. I can guarantee that not a single one would give the correct answer. The correct answer was dramatically revealed in the fable.  

 

In Chapter 1, Sloman raised this question, which we now restate:  

"What is the fundamental principle behind success in the market?"  

Or, phrased differently: What word should fill in the blank in this sentence: "To succeed in the market, we should...?"  

Do those who succeed in the market, whether intentionally or unintentionally, follow certain common practices?  

Take a minute to think deeply. Can you pinpoint what Mr. Certainty did... what he truly did to win in the market game? Remember, by the time you finish this book, you’ll feel that most of its content is something you’ve always known. But before you turn the page, I challenge you to come up with at least three answers to the question above. Here’s a hint: The answer is a noun.  

If the noun you guessed is "surrender," congratulations—you’re at the top of the class.  

 

What did Mr. Certainty do wrong when he lost money? In truth, he made many mistakes. One of them was daring to fight the market. The market moved against him... it became his enemy... and took his money.  

So what did he do right? What he did right was raise the white flag and surrender. He stopped swimming against the current and instead turned to go with the flow.  

 

Sloman shared a true story:  

"I knew an exceptionally talented professional trader—let’s call him Rob. Rob frequently traded large positions in the market every week. At the time, I was a novice, just starting out in Chicago, and by chance, I ended up trading next to him for a while. We were what you’d call ‘upstairs’ traders (executing trades in brokerage or trading firms without needing to go to the exchange); our trading floor was in an office building next to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  

 

One morning, I arrived at the office early and found Rob there alone. At the time, we were trading S&P 500 futures, so I casually asked him what he thought about the day’s market direction. His answer stunned me.  

‘I don’t know,’ Rob said.  

‘That’s because you don’t want to tell me,’ I replied.  

‘No,’ Rob said, ‘I’m telling you the truth. I have no idea where the market is headed.’  

I was a little unnerved. I stared at him blankly because I had no idea what he meant.  

Finally, I managed to say, ‘Rob, you’re clearly one of the best traders here. You really have no clue where the market is going today?’  

‘I’m not lying.’  

‘Then... then... how do you trade?’  

‘You wouldn’t believe me if I told you,’ Rob said. ‘You really wouldn’t.’  

‘Maybe you’re right, but try me.’  

Rob looked at me and said, ‘Alright. Here’s how it is: If the market goes up, I buy some. If it goes up more, I buy more. If it goes up again, I buy even more. If the market goes down, I sell some. If it goes down more, I sell more. If it goes down again, I sell even more.’  

Does this sound stupid? Absurd? Overly simplistic? At the time, I didn’t understand (back then, I was just a clueless rookie). Later, I realized that what Rob told me that morning was the essence of trading. Since then, I’ve seen this same approach in every successful trader.  

 

To put it bluntly:  

‘They never, ever let their opinions about the market interfere with their trading.’  

..............  

‘To succeed in the market, we should surrender.’  

‘Surrendering to the market means letting go of everything—abandoning all our cherished opinions, judgments, and conclusions about the market. This is incredibly hard because many of us have spent years studying the market, accumulating what we believe to be unique insights.  

 

In other words, we’ve made a significant investment in what we think we know. This makes it especially difficult to let go, particularly when we try to combine the best of both worlds. We ask, "Why not? Why can’t we use both—Adam Theory and the tools we already have in our toolbox?"  

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work. Unless we approach the market with complete detachment, it’s futile. As the saying goes, "Adam is like a jealous mistress."  

He demands that we approach the market knowing nothing.  

 

The moment we approach the market thinking we understand it even a little, the seeds of failure are already sown. This doesn’t mean we’ll necessarily lose money. Almost any good system or method can make money for a while. But our stubborn nature will eventually reveal itself (and often much sooner than we think).  

Why? Because the market is constantly changing. Only those who are truly uninhibited, possessing full flexibility, can adapt to its ever-shifting nature. Otherwise, we’ll find ourselves trapped defending a position: ‘It was supposed to move this way.’  

 

Nonsense. What truly matters is: Which way is it moving now? How is it behaving at this moment? Put another way:  

To achieve real success in the market, we must see it through the eyes of a five-year-old.  

Because if a five-year-old actually cared to watch the market (though I must admit, they’re far too smart to do so—they’d rather play in the sun), they’d have no accumulated baggage. Their perspective would be completely fresh." ‘To succeed in the market, we should surrender.’

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