Expectations of CATL's Lithium Mine Resumption Trigger Decline in Lithium Stocks: Tianqi Lithium Falls Nearly 8%

Due to expectations of CATL's lithium mine resumption, lithium stocks in the Hong Kong market performed weakly in the morning session. As of press time, Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK), CALB (03931.HK), and Ganfeng Lithium (01720.HK) fell by 7.65%, 7.25%, and 6.09%, respectively.

On the news front, according to post-market reports yesterday, at 9:20 a.m., Ningde Times’ subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Working Meeting on the Resumption of Production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine" to specifically advance the resumption of operations at the mine.

According to informed sources, the approval process for the mining rights certificate and mining license of CATL’s Jianxiawo Lithium Mine is progressing smoothly, and production is expected to resume soon, "faster than the market’s quickest expectations."

The production capacity of the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine should not be underestimated. According to Che Guojun, a researcher at Ping An Futures, the mine’s output is expected to reach 80,000 tons in 2025, accounting for "half of Jiangxi’s lithium production."

This production scale has a significant impact on the market. Some securities analysts even estimated, based on the average lithium oxide grade, that the production scale of the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine could reach 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year.

Industry analysis pointed out that although CATL’s project experienced a short-term shutdown, there were no obvious signs of reduction in lithium carbonate supply. Instead, due to increased imports of spodumene, inventory accumulation has been observed, which to some extent has contributed to the decline in lithium carbonate prices.

A research report released by CLSA expressed a bearish view. The institution expects lithium prices to face downward pressure, predicting that lithium carbonate prices will quickly fall below RMB 70,000 per ton, reflecting a resurgence of supply surplus in the market.

They also noted that the company may seek approval for comprehensive utilization by reporting very low lithium grades, which would be a shorter process compared to obtaining a full lithium mining license.