CITIC Securities: Satellite Launch Frequency Significantly Increasing; Industry Inflection Point Expected in Second Half of 2025

　　CITIC Securities research report points out that the satellite communication industry's strategic position is prominent, with clear policy direction. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the "Guiding Opinions," clearly stating that satellite communication services will be opened in an orderly manner. It is expected that the issuance of relevant licenses will be accelerated. In terms of the industry, bottlenecks in the industrial chain such as rocket capacity and launch costs may be resolved, and satellite launch frequency is significantly increasing. It is expected that the second half of 2025 may be an inflection point for the industry. At the market trading level, the satellite industry is transitioning from thematic investment to more sustainable industrial investment. It is recommended to prioritize satellite operating service providers with potential to obtain business licenses, as well as related enterprises in manufacturing, launch, and ground equipment.

　　The satellite communication industry's strategic position is prominent, with clear policy direction. Recently, the MIIT issued the "Guiding Opinions," clearly stating that satellite communication services will be opened in an orderly manner. We expect that the issuance of relevant licenses will be accelerated. In terms of the industry, bottlenecks in the industrial chain such as rocket capacity and launch costs may be resolved, and satellite launch frequency is significantly increasing. We expect that the second half of 2025 may be an inflection point for the industry. At the market trading level, the satellite industry is transitioning from thematic investment to more sustainable industrial investment. It is recommended to prioritize satellite operating service providers with potential to obtain business licenses, as well as related enterprises in manufacturing, launch, and ground equipment.

　　Satellite internet has significant strategic value in global coverage, 6G communication, and special communication, and is becoming a "new battlefield" for global competition. We believe that China and the US are engaged in multi-dimensional competition in low-orbit satellites and space, including resources, commerce, and military aspects. The accelerated progress of Starship may to some extent "force" China to accelerate the construction of its satellite internet system. The US Starlink has a first-mover advantage, while the domestic satellite industry chain still faces many bottlenecks. It is necessary to further improve infrastructure construction and reduce costs and increase efficiency through technological innovation and economies of scale.

　　Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we believe the industry inflection point is approaching, especially as bottlenecks in the industrial chain such as rocket capacity and launch costs may be resolved. Private companies are expected to develop recyclable medium-lift launch rockets comparable to the Falcon 9 in the next stage. According to the official websites and WeChat public accounts of various private rocket companies, several private rocket companies plan to conduct maiden flight tests of medium-lift launch rockets in the second half of 2025. If private aerospace companies' rocket tests are successful, they are expected to participate in the launch services for the GW constellation and Qianfan constellation, further accelerating the construction of China's satellite internet constellation.