Another major focus for the market on Wednesday was the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes.
The U.S. Federal Reserve expressed concerns about the economic outlook at its July monetary policy meeting. According to the minutes released on Wednesday, officials generally saw risks in the labor market and inflation situation, but most still insisted it was too early to cut interest rates. Ultimately, the Fed chose to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but two members of the Federal Reserve Board surprisingly cast dissenting votes, demanding an immediate rate cut. This marks the first time in over 30 years that multiple Governors have simultaneously opposed an interest rate decision, highlighting divisions within the policymaking ranks.
The two Governors who voted against were Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who favored starting rate cuts at the July meeting. Since last December, the Fed has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
The minutes showed that policymakers acknowledged the economy faces new downward threats worthy of continued monitoring. However, most still supported maintaining the current interest rate level, believing it to be appropriate policy suited to the economic situation. The minutes stated: "Participants generally noted risks to both sides of the Committee's dual mandate, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment." Most officials believed the risks of rising inflation were greater, but some officials believed that deteriorating employment was a more pressing issue.
During the meeting discussion, tariff policy became one of the core topics. The minutes mentioned: "Regarding upside risks to inflation, members pointed to uncertainty associated with tariffs and the possibility that inflation expectations could become unanchored." Fed officials believed there was significant uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of tariffs. Because tariffs increase import costs, some officials worried this could lead to further price increases, while others were concerned that a deteriorating trade environment would suppress employment and business investment. The Fed's assessment indicated that U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year was "weak," although the unemployment rate remained low.
The minutes also showed that many officials questioned the resilience of the labor market. Some pointed out that cracks had already appeared in the employment data, which could worsen without timely policy stimulus. The minutes stated: "If inflation were to remain elevated and the outlook for employment were to deteriorate, the Committee might face a difficult trade-off."