Former BitMEX co-founder and CEO Arthur Hayes recently reiterated his staunchly bullish stance on Bitcoin, reaffirming his prediction that Bitcoin could surpass the $250,000 milestone by the end of the year. If this prediction materializes, it would represent a staggering increase of approximately 170% from current price levels. Not only does Hayes stand by his bold forecast, but he also points to key market bottoming signals—last week's dip to around $80,600, which he views as having formed a阶段性 bottom, followed by a roughly 12% rebound, initially confirms this judgment.
Hayes' optimistic outlook is grounded in a thorough analysis of the macro-financial environment. He believes that the current liquidity tightening policy in the United States is nearing the end of its cycle, a turning point that will significantly impact global capital flows. Notably, the Federal Reserve implemented a preemptive interest rate cut in October, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, which is seen as a significant precursor to a shift in monetary policy. Market consensus expects the current quantitative tightening policy to conclude as early as the beginning of December. According to federal funds rate futures data, traders anticipate an 87% probability of a new rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting. This series of gradual monetary easing measures will create a more favorable liquidity environment for high-risk assets.
Particularly noteworthy is the large-scale leverage liquidation event in the cryptocurrency market on October 11. Hayes views this not as a negative factor but rather as a crucial market reset. This deleveraging process effectively cleared bubbles formed by excessive speculation in the market, laying a solid foundation for a new round of healthy gains. Through the release of systemic risk, the market structure has become more robust, providing positive support for Bitcoin's subsequent trajectory.
Although Hayes acknowledges that any market prediction carries the potential to deviate from actual paths, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency sector, he emphasizes that his analytical framework is based on a deep understanding of macroeconomic cycles and the intrinsic mechanisms of the crypto market. From a long-term perspective, he maintains unwavering confidence in Bitcoin's structural upward trend. This confidence stems both from recognition of Bitcoin's scarcity value and from a profound understanding of the long-term depreciation trend of global fiat currency systems.
In Hayes' analytical framework, Bitcoin is currently at a convergence point of multiple favorable factors: the gradual shift in macro policies, the self-repair of market structure, and continuously growing institutional adoption. These elements are creating a synergistic effect driving prices upward. He believes the current unique phase of the market bears significant resemblance to patterns seen on the eve of major historical breakthroughs.
For global investors, Hayes' prediction represents not only a specific price target but also embodies a profound reflection on the revaluation of this emerging asset class. Amid the accelerating integration of traditional financial systems and the crypto ecosystem, Bitcoin is reshaping its dual role as a store of value and a capital allocation tool. This fundamental shift in positioning may very well be the intrinsic driver supporting its astonishing price appreciation.
