Where are the economic bright spots and policy space?

  • 2025-11-27


Where are the economic bright spots and policy space?

  The third question focuses on economic bright spots and policy space. Xia Lei mentioned that exports have contributed significantly to economic growth this year. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of net exports to economic growth reached 29%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points.

  The share of exported goods has been continuously increasing. Data shows that the share of goods exports accounted for 14.6% of the global total in 2024, and as of 2024, China's goods export share has ranked first globally for 16 consecutive years. The competitiveness of Chinese products has significantly improved.

  Specifically, the trade structure is continuously optimizing. Taking electromechanical products, a core category in industrial manufacturing, as an example, Xia Lei pointed out that in 1995, the export share of China's electromechanical products was 25.5%. By October 2025, this share had risen to 60.7%. More notably, integrated circuits have become China's single highest-value export commodity, marking a transformation of the export structure from traditional categories like light and textile industries towards high-value-added products as the core.

  Meanwhile, the map of trading partners continues to expand, with Global South countries becoming China's main trading partners. From January to October 2025, exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America accounted for 31.4% of total exports.

  On the policy front, Xia Lei judges that there will still be ample space in 2026. In terms of fiscal policy, cumulative general public budget revenue during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period was 89 trillion yuan, and it is projected to reach 169 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. As the economic scale expands, the revenue base will further expand during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Although expenditure scales are adjusted simultaneously, fiscal policy always retains room for maneuver, with sufficient flexibility for adjustment.

  Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve's entry into an interest rate cutting cycle has created space for domestic policy operations. In the exchange rate arena, stability is largely maintained. As Governor Pan of the central bank stated, when facing market changes, China is "more composed, more experienced, and has the confidence, conditions, and capability to maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market."

  However, Xia Lei also emphasized the need to break away from the惯性思维 of policy dependency and have faith in the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy.

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