According to a Reuters survey conducted in late November among market professionals, most analysts expect the S&P 500 index to continue its upward trend over the next two years, potentially climbing to 7,490 points by the end of 2026. This would represent an approximate 12% increase from current levels. The optimistic outlook is primarily supported by robust U.S. economic fundamentals, strong earnings in the technology sector, and the Federal Reserve's trend toward looser monetary policy.

The survey, conducted between November 14 and 25, gathered views from 45 strategists, analysts, and portfolio managers. Based on the median forecast, the S&P 500 index is expected to close at 7,490 points in 2026, reflecting an 11.7% gain from its current level. If the index continues to rise in 2025, it would mark four consecutive years of annual gains, setting a new record for sustained strength in recent years.

However, amid the overall optimistic forecast, the market also faces short-term volatility risks. Among the 14 respondents who answered an additional question, eight believed there is a high likelihood of a correction in the S&P 500 index within the next three months. Analysts pointed to factors such as the potential resurgence of inflation and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path as major risks to current market expectations.

Meanwhile, the survey also provided a forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, projecting it to close at 50,566 points in 2025, representing a more than 7% increase from its closing level of 47,112.45 points on November 26.

In summary, while the market generally remains bullish on the medium- to long-term performance of U.S. stocks, investors should remain cautious of short-term fluctuations during this critical phase of monetary policy transition. Close attention should be paid to inflation trends and interest rate policy movements, as they could significantly impact market sentiment.