On November 18 local time, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower collectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.07%, the S&P 500 index dropped by 0.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 1.21%. Most major tech stocks retreated, with Amazon and AMD falling over 4%, Microsoft and Nvidia dropping over 2%, and Tesla decreasing over 1%.

This marks several consecutive days of pullbacks for the major U.S. stock indices. After hitting a new intraday high last Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 4.48%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4.16% over four days, and the S&P 500 index dropped 3.41%.

Not only the stock market, but the U.S. bond and commodity markets also experienced adjustments last week, with investor divergence significantly increasing. First Capital (002797) Securities' research report pointed out that the main reasons are: First, market concerns about AI tech stocks have not eased. Although the profit growth of leading AI tech stocks continues to increase, investors are skeptical about how much profit growth the sustained massive capital expenditures of tech stocks can bring in the future. Coupled with the stimulation of some unexpected events, this has led the market to reassess the alignment of tech stock valuations with performance. Second, as the previous U.S. government shutdown prevented some core data from being released promptly, and hawkish remarks from Fed officials last week raised market concerns about a Fed rate cut in December, this also intensified market risk aversion.

Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) released a research report stating that the lack of key economic data has made it difficult for the Fed and the market to accurately assess the economic situation and inflation trends. Amid this uncertainty, hawkish voices within the Fed have significantly strengthened, leading to a sharp cooling of market expectations for a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch Tool," the market's probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December plummeted from about 66% at the beginning of last week to less than 50% by the weekend. Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) believes that multiple factors such as "Fed rate cuts + a weaker U.S. dollar + central bank demand + safe-haven demand" will continue to support gold prices.