
On November 8, a CITIC Securities research report stated that the 2025 third-quarter earnings are expected to show continued growth in U.S. stocks, with the information technology sector once again leading in profit growth. Although there is a divergence in profit performance between tech and non-tech sectors, most industries still maintain relatively high profit growth. For the full year, U.S. stock earnings expectations have been structurally revised upward, with tech giants remaining the core driver. Currently, the market has doubts about the sustainability of cyclical investments in tech companies, raising concerns about a bubble in the U.S. stock AI sector. However, as it is difficult to disprove its sustainability in the short term and the tech industry has not widely relied on debt for capital expenditures, an extreme scenario of an AI bubble bursting is unlikely to occur in the near term. Instead, cyclical investments are expected to sustain the AI narrative. Additionally, the market is concerned about the spread of U.S. private credit risks, though these remain isolated incidents. Although large U.S. banks have relatively significant exposure, their ability to absorb isolated risks is strong. Therefore, it is concluded that, as long as private credit does not evolve into a systemic risk, its overall impact on U.S. stocks is manageable. Overall, despite concerns about the sustainability of tech investments and credit risks, these are unlikely to alter the upward trend of U.S. stocks supported by robust earnings in the short term.
