Uncertainty Over Whether the Fed Will Cut Rates in December

  • 2025-11-07

 

On November 6, analysts Simon Ballard and Almaha AlNuaimi from First Abu Dhabi Bank stated that a US government "shutdown" and the interruption of official data releases could lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts next month. The two analysts pointed out that the uncertainty brought by a government shutdown would strengthen the rationale for the Fed to "hit the pause button" in December.

However, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she expects the Fed to cut rates in December. She mentioned that she would prefer to reach the neutral rate in steps of 50 basis points, but many of her colleagues prefer to adjust in steps of 25 basis points.

Cleveland Fed President Hannah Mark stated that inflation remains "too high" and poses a greater risk to the economy than a slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that monetary policy should continue to exert pressure on inflation. She believes the current interest rate level is "barely restrictive," suggesting that further rate cuts might be premature.

New York Fed President John Williams noted that market estimates of the "neutral rate" might be too high. If this assessment holds, the Fed would still have room to continue cutting rates without undermining efforts to curb inflation. However, he did not explicitly state whether he supports a rate cut in December.

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