The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) as expected in October. Powell struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is not a done deal

  • 2025-10-30

 

On the morning of October 30, the Hang Seng Tech Index opened slightly higher before entering a volatile trend, briefly turning negative during the session. Among mainstream ETFs, the largest A-share tracker in the same sector, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), followed the index's fluctuations, at one point falling over 1%. Among its holdings, XPeng Motors, Midea Group, NIO, Horizon Robotics, Tencent Holdings, and Alibaba Group were among the top gainers, while Sunny Optical Technology, Tencent Music, Trip.com Group, and Xiaomi Group were among the top decliners.

In terms of news, on October 30, the Federal Reserve announced the outcome of its October policy meeting, lowering the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4%, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the Fed announced it would end balance sheet reduction on December 1. It is worth noting that compared to the interest rate decision, Powell's remarks were relatively hawkish, emphasizing that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Founder Securities pointed out that following Powell's slightly hawkish comments, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, and the gains in U.S. stocks narrowed sharply, as previous loose trading had been overly optimistic. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of weakening employment, there is a high probability of another rate cut in December, while the path for rate cuts next year will take time to confirm.

SDIC Securities, in a recent research report, proposed pricing considerations for the current and near-term periods: (1) Based on pricing logic, an easing of Sino-U.S. tariff conflicts would favor an improvement in risk appetite. This trading dynamic may peak around the APEC meeting at the end of October, benefiting Hang Seng Tech, undervalued offshore assets, and A-share tech stocks with fundamental support. (2) Based on pricing logic, as we enter November and look toward 2026, it is more important to simultaneously observe the cyclical economic rebound, tracking whether domestic PPI can recover by the end of the year and into the first half of next year and whether global synchronized active inventory replenishment occurs. This would benefit undervalued domestic cyclical sectors and globally priced resource assets.

Related ETFs:

Hong Kong Tech Focus: Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), supports T+0 trading, driven by both "hard tech + new consumption," core assets of China's AI.

A-Share Tech Focus: STAR & ChiNext 50 ETF (159783), focuses on high volatility of "20CM" stocks, covering popular tech sectors such as semiconductors, communication equipment, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment.

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