Unprecedented! White House Warns October Inflation Data May Be Unavailable

The US government shutdown has entered its fourth week. Senate Democrats have repeatedly rejected temporary spending bills, stating they would refuse to support funding measures unless the health insurance subsidy provisions are extended. Funding shortages have forced a large number of federal employees to take furloughs, including staff from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) involved in price surveys.

The White House stated on social media platforms that due to Congress's failure to pass funding, BLS field staff cannot conduct on-site price collection, "and therefore we cannot obtain critical data." White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt added that this could throw businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve into disarray.

Industry analysts stated that if price collection work stalls for the entire month, it means a lack of a foundational sample for calculation. Even if the government resumes operations in early November, it would be nearly impossible to retrospectively collect price information in a short period.

Compared to price surveys, the release of employment data might be slightly more feasible. Experts explained that businesses typically maintain their own hiring and firing records; even if delayed, administrative data can be relied upon for revisions. However, inflation data relies on field sampling, and once interrupted, it cannot be retroactively compiled.

Market observers believe that this "information vacuum" will leave businesses without pricing references and make it difficult for investors to judge price trends. For policymakers, the partial failure of the economic "dashboard" will bring higher uncertainty.

Oxford Economics analyzed that the halt in price collection means policymakers are "flying blind" when assessing inflation trends, and monetary policy formulation will consequently face increased complexity.

Some economists warned that if inflation and employment data disruptions persist, market confidence could be hit. If business and consumer expectations become misaligned, it could amplify financial market volatility and cause lags in the transmission of monetary policy.