Major News from the Fed! US September Nonfarm Payroll Report Fails to Be Released as Scheduled

Due to the US government shutdown, the September nonfarm payroll report was not released as scheduled. Wall Street is concerned that a prolonged absence of key economic data could add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. According to the latest news, on October 3 local time, the US Senate voted on a temporary funding bill proposed by the Democrats. The result, with 46 in favor and 52 against, once again failed to advance the bill. Subsequently, a temporary funding bill proposed by the Republicans also failed to secure enough votes for passage, meaning the federal government will continue its "shutdown."

Furthermore, several Fed officials have intensively made statements releasing significant signals. Fed Governor Stephen Milan, in an interview on October 3 local time, continued to downplay the risk of tariffs fueling inflation. 2025 voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Chicago Fed estimates the September unemployment rate should be 4.3%, the labor market remains stable, and he is cautious about "front-loaded" interest rate cuts. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that the Fed is facing the dual challenges of a cooling labor market and rising inflationary pressures, making the monetary policy outlook complex.

According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," as of 06:30 Beijing Time on October 4, the probability of the Fed maintaining unchanged interest rates in October is 5.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 94.6%. For December, the probability of maintaining unchanged rates is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 84.0%.

Regarding Fed independence, on October 1 local time, the US Supreme Court refused to allow President Trump to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who is suing to keep her job. This represents a setback to his efforts to exert more control over the Fed. According to an order issued on October 1, Cook can continue serving in her position.