
Since September 24, 2024, the A-share market has experienced a strong upward trend. At the time, we might have viewed 924 as a technical rebound from oversold conditions. However, looking back one year later, it appears more like a new starting point that ended the three-year bear market for the STAR Market.
Judging from the gains over the past nearly 250 trading days, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-caps, with the technology and growth sectors showing particularly outstanding performance. Indices with high "STAR" concentration have doubled their gains. The STAR 200 Index, which combines small-cap and growth styles, has risen by 131.21%, while the STAR 50 Index has increased by 121.06%.
At this point in time, should investors cash in on the STAR Market indices that have surged over 100%? How should we view the subsequent market trends?
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Currently, China still has many technological fields awaiting breakthroughs and catch-up. The possibility of policy headwinds is very low. For the foreseeable future, the focus will be more on support and nurturing. The overarching direction of achieving technological breakthroughs and self-reliance remains unchanged.
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From the perspective of the index level since its base date, the adjustment幅度 of the STAR 50 Index since its listing is comparable to that of the ChiNext Index, but its adjustment cycle has been longer. The extent and duration of the adjustment have been relatively sufficient. Although the index has surged over 100% in the past year, compared to the "Internet+" wave in the ChiNext market, its current level is still in a climbing phase, and the "main upward wave" has yet to arrive. Currently, "AI+" covers a broader scope, from underlying hardware to scenario applications. We believe this AI wave can yield more investment opportunities.
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The technology sector continues to be infused with "new blood." On September 19, the Shanghai Stock Exchange disclosed that the listing review committee will hold a meeting on September 26 to review the initial public offering of Moore Threads. If approved, Moore Threads will move closer to becoming the "first domestic GPU stock." From an entry perspective, besides prioritizing the listing of "hard tech" companies that break through key core technologies, higher requirements are being placed on the R&D investment of prospective listed companies. In 2024, the minimum cumulative R&D investment amount for STAR Market applicants over the recent three years was raised from 60 million yuan to 80 million yuan, or the R&D investment must account for more than 5% of operating revenue over the same period. These adjustments indicate that while casting a wide net in the tech sector, the screening process for genuine tech companies has been enhanced. As more hardcore companies list, it will accelerate the breakthrough in China's core technologies and the process of achieving autonomous and controllable industrial chains.
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From a technical chart perspective, the STAR 50 Index has broken through its previous consolidation platform with heavy volume, opening up further upside space. If a pullback occurs, there is substantial support below. Continued attention is recommended.
