On September 8, expectations of a Fed rate cut combined with global political and economic turmoil boosted safe-haven demand, sustaining gold’s strong performance. COMEX gold futures prices briefly exceeded $3,685.7 per ounce during the session. Since September, gold prices have reached record highs in 5 out of 6 trading days. At close, COMEX gold futures rose 0.67% to $3,677.60 per ounce. By the end of the Asian market session, China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.95%, while Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell 0.76%.
On the news front, Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation at a press conference held at the Prime Minister’s Office on the evening of the 7th. The French government failed to pass a vote of confidence, forcing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to resign. After the U.S. released significantly weaker-than-expected August non-farm payroll data, Wall Street once again sparked a wave of "expectation adjustments" regarding the Fed’s rate cut prospects. Standard Chartered noted that preliminary revisions to employment data from April 2024 to March 2025 (to be released by the U.S. Labor Department this Tuesday) are expected to support its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut. Sticky inflation and fiscal easing will limit the room for further rate cuts after September.
CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that, from a medium-term perspective, global liquidity will provide some support for gold prices. In this global rate-cutting cycle, non-U.S. central banks have cut rates ahead of the Fed, and the spillover effects of global liquidity have pushed gold higher. Recent U.S. inflation data fell short of expectations, and tariff impacts on inflation pressure may be less significant than market expectations. Based on actual inflation prediction indicators, U.S. inflation risks are expected to remain controllable within the year. The Fed still has room for rate cuts, with recent comments from Fed officials Waller and Bowman supporting a rate cut as early as July. Some central banks will follow the Fed’s rate cuts, indicating that the global wave of rate cuts is not over, providing medium-term support for gold prices.
