On September 4th, data disclosed by on-chain analyst Murphy revealed that BlackRock executed a stunning shift in crypto assets: selling $151.4 million worth of ETH while simultaneously buying $289.8 million worth of BTC. This move not only indicates a significant shift in the asset allocation strategy towards digital currencies by traditional financial giants but also foreshadows an impending fierce battle between bulls and bears in the cryptocurrency market.

What Signals Are Hidden Behind BlackRock's Masterstroke?

BlackRock's move yesterday was truly astounding—selling $150 million worth of Ethereum but buying nearly $290 million worth of Bitcoin, with the purchase amount almost double the sale amount!

This "sell one, buy two" masterstroke clearly indicates a rebalancing of its crypto asset allocation, with a obvious tilt towards Bitcoin. This makes one wonder: have these traditional financial giants spotted an opportunity that ordinary people haven't yet perceived?

The movements of institutional investors often serve as a market barometer. BlackRock's substantial portfolio adjustment is clearly not an impulsive act but a well-considered strategic layout. This shows that institutional capital continues to flow into the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin.

$112,700 Becomes Key Resistance, Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies

In the early hours of this morning, Bitcoin surged to $112,575 but couldn't break higher. Why? Because the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) at $112,700 formed a strong resistance level.

This level is crucial because it represents the average entry price for most recent traders. Once the price approaches this level, short-term holders looking to "break even and exit" will start selling, creating significant selling pressure.

Analyzing the market from the perspective of short-term holder sentiment and mindset is indeed reasonable. These holders are often the "barometer" of market sentiment, and their actions directly influence short-term price movements.

The current Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture. The outcome of this bull-bear battle will likely set the tone for the entire cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year.

Stablecoin Army Gathers, Binance Becomes Main Bull-Bear Battleground

On September 4th, on-chain analyst Murphy pointed out that the stablecoin balance on the Binance exchange is growing rapidly, increasing the potential for future market博弈 (bóyì - game theory/contest).

Data shows that since BTC entered a correction on August 13th, the balance of major stablecoins (USDT+USDC) on Binance has seen a惊人的 (jīngrén - astonishing) significant increase. From August 13th to September 3rd, the net increase reached a whopping $4.9 billion!

This figure far exceeds the growth in stablecoin balances during similar periods following Bitcoin's entry into correction zones in August 2024 ($3.4 billion) and March 2025 ($2.8 billion).

As a primary source of market liquidity, an increase in stablecoin reserves directly enhances the purchasing power and market activity for cryptocurrencies. Having this much stablecoin sitting on exchanges is like having ammunition loaded, waiting for the right moment to疯狂扫货 (fēngkuáng sǎo huò - frantically sweep up goods).

Record Single-Day Inflows, These Days Are Key Observation Points

A detailed analysis of stablecoin inflows shows the most significant surges occurred on these key dates:

2025.8.14: Net increase of $1.83 billion

2025.8.22: Net increase of $1.72 billion

2025.8.26: Net increase of $760 million

2025.8.28: Net increase of $680 million

Even after subtracting the capital increase brought by Binance's wealth management activities, there was still a real net inflow of $3.6 billion.
Such a large influx of funds into the exchange clearly indicates that a large number of investors are waiting for opportunities or building positions in batches. Although current market sentiment is bearish, these fund inflows provide more possibilities for the bull-bear contest.

History Rhymes but Doesn't Repeat: Will It Replay or Rewrite This Time?

Looking back at history, we find the current situation very similar to fund flows during the relative bottom zones in August 2024 and March 2025.

Following those two instances, Bitcoin experienced significant rebounds. So, will history repeat itself this time?

However, it's important to note that the scale of stablecoin inflows this time far exceeds the previous two, suggesting subsequent market movements could be more intense.

While this doesn't necessarily mean a market reversal is imminent, it at least indicates the possibility of continued bull-bear struggle. The market always moves forward amidst uncertainty, and this uncertainty is where opportunity lies.

Where Should Investors Go From Here?

Facing such a complex market environment, where should investors turn? Here are some suggestions:

• Focus on Macro Indicators and On-Chain Data: Pay close attention to key metrics like stablecoin reserves, exchange inflows/outflows, and whale address movements.

• Balance Long-Term Holding with Short-Term Risk Control: Don't alter long-term convictions due to short-term volatility, but also practice risk control to avoid emotional trading.

• Avoid High Leverage Risks: In the current highly volatile market environment, high leverage is like playing with fire; a misstep could lead to liquidation.

• Closely Monitor Fed Policy Moves: Macroeconomic policies significantly impact Bitcoin's price, especially interest rate policies and US dollar liquidity conditions.

The $4.9 billion net increase in stablecoins (only USDT and USDC) on the Binance platform is like ammunition stored for a major battle, far exceeding the scale of fund inflows during the corrections in August 2024 and March 2025.

Market sentiment appears bearish, but this massive pool of funds suggests a large number of investors are waiting for opportunities to buy the dip or build positions gradually. Historical data shows similar situations occurred in the relative bottom zones of August 2024 and March 2025.

The bull-bear battle is not over yet. The fight for the key resistance level at $112,700 might just be the prelude to a larger market move.