In early trading on September 4, Hong Kong's three major stock indices opened higher collectively, likely boosted by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.57%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.74%. In terms of market performance, most tech stocks gained, with robotics concept stocks surging significantly. Innovative drug concepts continued their upward trend, stablecoin concepts opened higher, Apple-related stocks generally advanced, and gold stocks remained active. After the market opened, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180)—the largest of its kind in the A-share market—edged up in line with the index. Among its holdings, BYD Electronic, Tencent Music, Lenovo Group, Sunny Optical Technology, and ASMPT were among the top gainers.

On the news front, the U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book was released, noting that feedback from various Fed districts indicated consumer spending remained flat or declined as wages for many households failed to keep pace with rising prices. As tariffs gradually permeate the economy, businesses in some regions raised goods and services prices to offset higher costs. In the labor market, U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, down from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10-month low and well below the expected 7.382 million. Additionally, Fed Governor Waller stated that the Fed should begin cutting rates this month and implement multiple reductions in the coming months, though he remains open to the specific pace of cuts, emphasizing it will depend on future economic data. Under the influence of these multiple factors, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen again. As of the time of writing, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.

With expectations of a Fed rate cut in September significantly heating up, marginal improvements in global liquidity are expected to spill over into the Hong Kong market. The high-growth, highly volatile tech sector of Hong Kong stocks may be among the first to benefit. The Hang Seng Tech Index remains in a historically relatively undervalued range, is more sensitive to shifts in the China-U.S. interest rate differential, and stands to benefit more deeply from a looser overseas liquidity environment. At the same time, the Hang Seng Tech Index has underperformed relative to the A-share tech sector in the recent past. With improving liquidity narratives, its upward momentum may be stronger, potentially leading to a "catch-up rally." Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider gaining exposure to China's core AI assets through the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180).