Since last year, the Bitcoin asset strategy of Japanese listed company Metaplanet has attracted significant attention, with its stock price surging over 40 times at its peak. Public information shows that the company currently holds 20,000 Bitcoins, ranking as the sixth-largest Bitcoin treasury company globally. However, despite Bitcoin's strong performance since April this year, Metaplanet's stock price peaked in June and has since retreated by more than 50%, showing an increasingly evident decoupling from BTC.

Weakening Endogenous Variables in the Crypto Market

From initially being a hotel company to now holding 20,000 Bitcoins, Metaplanet has successfully implemented a "buy Bitcoin—boost stock—raise funds—buy more Bitcoin" model in less than two years.

In April 2024, as Bitcoin bottomed and rebounded, the company launched additional share issuances and convertible bond financing to purchase its first batch of BTC. After the stock price rose, the company further increased its holdings through shareholder issuances and low-interest loans. As of early September 2025, the company holds approximately 20,000 Bitcoins, with a crypto market value exceeding $2 billion, ranking as the sixth-largest Bitcoin treasury company (after MicroStrategy, MARA, XXI, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Bullish).

Additionally, the company has set a year-end target of 30,000 Bitcoins and plans to continue purchasing in September–October according to its fundraising plan. At a special shareholders' meeting, President Simon Gerovich stated the goal of accumulating 210,000 BTC by 2027 (approximately 1% of the supply).

As of the close on September 2 (UTC+9), Metaplanet's stock price was 832 yen, down about 57% from its June high of 1,930 yen. Based on holdings of 20,000 BTC and a BTC price of approximately $108,000–$111,000, the treasury market value is about $2.16–$2.22 billion, corresponding to a "market cap / BTC holding value" ratio ≈ 1.8x (approximate mNAV premium, excluding other assets/liabilities).

The divergence between the stock price and Bitcoin's price is not merely idiosyncratic noise unique to Metaplanet (as detailed in our article "From Divergence to Simultaneous Decline: Crypto-Equity Linkage at a Crossroads"), nor can it be explained simply by "deteriorating fundamentals." The key lies in the weakening endogenous variables of the crypto market—according to SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $751 million in August. Bitcoin funding rates have declined from mid-July highs to near zero, with multiple instances turning negative during this period. With cooling marginal buying and weakening leverage momentum, the threshold for recoupling between BTC treasury stocks and BTC has been raised.

A Fight for Survival or a Fool's Errand?

It is reported that Metaplanet shareholders have approved an increase in authorized shares and established preferred stock terms, with a maximum issuance of approximately $3.8 billion. The proceeds will primarily be used to continue purchasing Bitcoin and expanding the treasury. In the Japanese market, preferred stock is not common; fixed dividends and liquidation preferences provide funding certainty but also imply immediate dilution and governance discounts. The market will assess the effectiveness of this "capital infusion" based on whether it can translate into upward momentum.

The key to success lies not in "whether the issuance is successful" but in the crypto beta encountered after the funds are deployed.

According to the company's plan, Bitcoin holdings are to be increased to 30,000 by the end of this year, corresponding to three potential development paths:

1. Fast Pace (Beta Recovery): If Bitcoin spot ETFs see significant net inflows again, the company will be motivated to quickly purchase nearly all of the additional 10,000 BTC in September–October, with an average price roughly around the current price range. The effect would be a rapid expansion of BTC on the books and a阶段性 stabilization or even recovery of the mNAV premium. The cost would be a higher average holding price, increased sensitivity to pullbacks, and amplified downside elasticity due to the "rigid cost" of preferred stock dividends.

2. Moderate Pace (Neutral Beta): If Bitcoin prices remain range-bound in the short term, the company is more likely to make purchases in batches, pushing holdings to the 27,000–30,000 range by year-end. This approach reduces the risk of buying at high levels, but dilution and preference discounts would offset valuation elasticity. The stock price would likely trade close to mNAV, with little room for significant premium expansion.

3. Slow Pace (Weakening Beta): If funds continue to see net outflows and Bitcoin prices struggle to maintain highs, the company's mNAV premium will continue to compress or even turn negative. Expectations of dilution from preferred stock/additional issuances, rising financing costs, and collapsing market sentiment would amplify downward momentum in the stock price, lower the valuation anchor, and potentially create pressure for passive deleveraging.

Conclusion

In short, while the treasury model has provided short-term growth momentum, its fragility is becoming increasingly apparent amid market volatility and macroeconomic changes. After going all-in on Bitcoin, Metaplanet's future is no longer in its own hands but is instead tied to the crypto market. As the crypto market evolves toward more diversified and compliant purchasing methods, transitioning from a value洼地 to a market consensus, Metaplanet, as a follower of this path, may find itself in an increasingly challenging position.