Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, recently shared a重磅 perspective on X, causing quite a stir! The investment guru, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, stated plainly: Relaxing cryptocurrency regulations does not threaten the U.S. dollar's status. The real risk lies in the U.S. government's growing debt dilemma.
This is not alarmist talk. Dalio pointed out that the debt issues of the U.S. dollar and other reserve currency-issuing governments are eroding their appeal as reserve currencies and stores of value. This, he argues, is a key driver behind the rising prices of gold and cryptocurrencies.
Debt Black Hole: Mounting Concerns for the U.S. Economy
The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36.4 trillion, accounting for 30% of global GDP, with annual interest payments making up 27% of federal revenue. What does this mean? It equates to every American citizen bearing over $100,000 in national debt.
Drawing on over 50 years of macro-investing experience and his study of 500 years of historical turning points, Dalio observes that the most reliable precursor to a nation descending into internal conflict is often government fiscal bankruptcy coupled with severe wealth inequality.
He warns that the U.S. is entering the fifth stage of its historical "big cycle"—a dangerous period of fiscal deterioration and deep social division that could very likely trigger a systemic domestic collapse.
Printing Money to Repay Debt: The Invisible Killer of the Dollar's Purchasing Power
What is the most likely measure the U.S. government will take in the face of massive debt? Dalio hits the nail on the head: "Print money to repay debt."
In a recent analysis, he noted: "Credit ratings consistently underestimate actual credit risk because they only assess the likelihood of a government defaulting on its debt. The greater risk lies in the possibility that debtor nations may resort to printing money to repay debts, which will cause bondholders to suffer losses due to currency devaluation (rather than a reduction in repayment amounts)."
In other words, even if the U.S. government doesn't default directly, the devaluation of the dollar caused by massive money printing effectively erodes the real purchasing power of bondholders. This is the real risk.
Stablecoins and U.S. Debt: An Inextricable Link
On the risk stablecoins pose to U.S. Treasury bonds, Dalio offers a unconventional view: "I believe the real risk is the decline in the actual purchasing power of U.S. Treasury bonds. If stablecoins are well-regulated, this should not pose any systemic risk."
Data shows that in 2024, stablecoin issuers purchased approximately $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with annual purchases exceeding those of many national entities. Standard Chartered predicts that by 2028, stablecoins could absorb $1.6 trillion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
The U.S. "GENIUS Act" even mandates that stablecoin issuers must allocate 100% of their reserve assets to U.S. dollar cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds maturing within 93 days. This effectively creates a closed loop: "U.S. dollar issuance → stablecoins → cryptocurrencies → U.S. Treasury bonds."
Cryptocurrencies: Supply-Limited Alternative Currencies
Dalio points out that cryptocurrencies have now become supply-limited alternative currencies. All else being equal, if the supply of U.S. dollars increases and/or demand for the dollar declines, cryptocurrencies are likely to become attractive alternative currencies.
He believes that most fiat currencies, especially those with massive debt burdens, will face problems as effective stores of value and will depreciate relative to hard assets.
This view is supported by market data. In the first quarter, Bridgewater aggressively bought 1.1 million shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), with holdings worth nearly $319 million. Dalio has long been bullish on gold and recommends that investors allocate about 10% of their assets to gold in the current environment.
Digital Gold and the New Monetary System
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, has expressed similar views: Against the backdrop of ongoing global economic turbulence, Bitcoin may eventually become an important component of government reserves worldwide.
In his view, Bitcoin offers advantages such as divisibility, portability, and utility, making it more competitive than traditional assets like gold. He predicts that governments may gradually allocate a portion of their reserves to Bitcoin, starting perhaps with 1%.
The U.S. is laying the groundwork for a "trinity" global digital governance framework. The Trump administration has signed an executive order announcing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a U.S. digital asset reserve, incorporating approximately 200,000 Bitcoin seized through judicial processes into strategic reserves.
How Should Ordinary People Respond?
In the face of potential changes to the monetary system, what should ordinary investors do? Dalio's advice is: Diversify.
He particularly emphasizes: "I am a huge believer in diversification, but most people are severely under-allocated to gold. When a crisis comes, gold will be an excellent risk diversification tool."
Market reactions confirm Dalio's judgment: In the first quarter, GLD holdings surged by 61 tons, reflecting investors' use of gold to hedge against geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty.
Although Bitcoin's price remains volatile (reporting at $100,985 on June 22, 2025), the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that Bitcoin is currently oversold, suggesting a potential rebound.
Survival Strategies in an Era of Change
Dalio's warnings deserve serious consideration. The hegemony of the U.S. dollar will not be replaced overnight, but it is indeed facing unprecedented challenges.
He points out that the current international geopolitical order is collapsing because the era of the U.S. dictating terms for other countries to follow is over. The multilateral cooperative world order is threatened by unilateralism.
In this context, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, may play an increasingly important role. However, it is important to note that cryptocurrencies still face many challenges, including price volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and technical barriers.
The future monetary system is likely to be多元化, comprising a hybrid system where traditional fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and hard assets like gold coexist.
As investors, we need to keep an open mind, understand these changes, and make appropriate allocations in our portfolios to prepare for potential transformations in the monetary system.
The only constant is change itself. In the wave of monetary system transformation, only by adapting flexibly and diversifying risks can we protect our wealth from erosion.
