On September 2, Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned in a reply to @WholeMarsBlog that he believes about 80% of Tesla’s future value will come from the Optimus robot.

Not long ago, in Tesla’s latest "Master Plan," the mission of the humanoid robot Optimus is to give people more time to do what they truly love. It is positioned as the core vehicle for "liberating human labor," with plans to achieve commercial application by 2026. Through mass production, it will replace dull or dangerous work, enabling exponential growth in productivity.

Musk stated that Optimus’s mission is to change people’s perception of labor, especially by helping them escape dull or dangerous jobs.

Although Musk is confident about Optimus’s future, market sentiment is divided. According to data from the prediction trading platform Kalshi, users believe there is only a 40% probability that Tesla’s Optimus will be launched before 2027. Additionally, Tesla has abandoned further in-house development of the Dojo supercomputer and instead relies on NVIDIA chips to train its FSD intelligent assisted driving system. It is expected that the Optimus robot will adopt the upcoming AI5 chip.

The humanoid robot industry is a high-tech sector integrating cutting-edge technologies from multiple fields such as mechanical engineering, electronics, computer science, and artificial intelligence. In recent years, with the rapid development of AI technology, especially breakthroughs in areas like deep learning, natural language processing, and computer vision, progress has been made in the R&D and application of humanoid robots. From home services and medical care to industrial production, education, and entertainment, the application scenarios of humanoid robots continue to expand, demonstrating huge market potential and commercial value.

According to information disclosed at the China Humanoid Robot Industry Conference, the scale of China’s humanoid robot market in 2024 is approximately RMB 2.76 billion. Regarding the future development of the entire humanoid robot market, the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in November 2023 clearly states that by 2027, the industry will accelerate large-scale development, application scenarios will become more abundant, and related products will deeply integrate into the real economy, becoming an important new engine for economic growth.

The Forward Industry Research Institute predicts that by 2030, global shipments of humanoid robots will reach 38,000 units.

Currently, many global tech giants and startups are actively advancing mass production plans for humanoid robots. Although challenges such as high R&D costs, technological maturity, and market acceptance remain, with continuous technological progress and growing market demand, breakthroughs in the mass production of humanoid robots are expected in the coming years, bringing new productivity and lifestyles to human society.