The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to implement the first rate cut of this cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise ahead of monetary easing but declines after the rate cut is implemented. However, this pattern does not always hold. This article reviews the situations in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to anticipate potential trends in September 2025.

2019: Rally on Expectations, Decline After Implementation

In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 by June. The Fed announced rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30.

Each rate cut decision marked a near-exhaustion of Bitcoin’s upward momentum. BTC rallied significantly before the FOMC meetings but sold off afterward as the reality of weak economic growth reemerged. This suggests that the positive impact of rate cuts had already been priced in, while the reality of slowing growth dominated subsequent trends.

2020: An Exception Under Emergency Rate Cuts

The situation in March 2020 was not a typical cycle. At that time, in response to panic triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed slashed interest rates to zero.

During this liquidity crisis, BTC plummeted alongside stocks but subsequently rebounded strongly amid massive fiscal and monetary policy support. Thus, this was a crisis-driven exception and cannot serve as a template for predicting 2025 trends.

2024: Narrative Overpowers Liquidity

In 2024, the trend changed. BTC did not decline after the rate cut but continued its upward momentum.

Reasons include:

• Trump’s campaign turned cryptocurrency into an election issue.

• Spot ETFs attracted record-breaking inflows.

• MicroStrategy’s balance sheet-level buying demand remained strong.

Against this backdrop, the importance of liquidity diminished. Structural buying and political favorable factors outweighed traditional economic cycle impacts.

September 2025: Conditional Market Trigger

The current market background differs from the runaway rallies of past cycles. Since late August, Bitcoin has been consolidating, ETF inflows have slowed significantly, and corporate balance sheet buying, once a sustained positive factor, has begun to weaken.

This makes the September rate cut a conditional market trigger rather than a direct catalyst.

If Bitcoin rallies significantly before the FOMC meeting, the risk of history repeating itself increases—traders may "sell the fact" after the easing policy is implemented, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.

However, if the price remains stable or slightly lower before the decision, most excess positions may have been cleared, allowing the rate cut to stabilize the market rather than mark the end of upward momentum.

Core View

Bitcoin’s current trend may be influenced by the Fed’s September FOMC meeting and related liquidity changes. Overall, Bitcoin may experience a rally before the FOMC meeting, but the upward momentum may struggle to break new highs.

If the price rallies significantly before the meeting, a "sell the news" pullback is likely.

However, if the price consolidates or declines from early September until the meeting, an unexpected rally could occur due to the rate adjustment.

Nevertheless, even if a rebound occurs, the market should remain cautious. The next rally may form a lower high (approximately in the $118,000–$120,000 range).

Assuming this lower high materializes, it could set the stage for the latter part of Q4, when liquidity conditions are expected to stabilize, and demand may rebound, driving Bitcoin toward new highs.