Since August, the crypto market has continued its bullish trend, with Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs and Ethereum prices also rising sharply. Amid sustained global liquidity easing and growing institutional confidence, crypto assets are at a critical juncture where policy, capital, and macro expectations converge. In this column, HTX Research’s Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes recent market trends, focusing on liquidity dynamics, on-chain activity, and upcoming key data and policy decisions.
Global Liquidity Ease Persists, Institutional Demand Rises
Global liquidity remained high by late August. StreetStats data shows that as of August 27, 2025, the M2 money supply of major economies reached approximately $95.116 trillion, a record high, with a 3.87% increase over the past three months. This indicates continued short-term monetary easing, providing crucial support for Bitcoin’s strength. Meanwhile, institutional holdings grew further. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs held ~1.3 million BTC by August 27, about 6% of circulating supply, while MicroStrategy added 430 BTC between July and August, bringing its total holdings to 629,376 BTC—signaling that short-term volatility hasn’t deterred long-term institutional demand.
Regulatory tailwinds also emerged in early August. On August 7, the U.S. President signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets like Bitcoin. By late August, this sparked discussions about new Bitcoin-based financial products. Given the ~$8.9 trillion managed by 401(k) plans, even a 1% allocation to Bitcoin could drive ~$890 billion in potential incremental demand.
On-Chain Metrics Show Short-Term Overheating, but Structural Risks Are Contained
On-chain data, while indicating short-term overheating, remains healthy overall. The MVRV-Z ratio stood at ~2.49 by late August, above its historical average and hinting at a possible pullback. However, aSOPR (~1.019) and NUPL (0.558) suggest stable realized and unrealized profit levels, with no excessive market froth.
Policy Tailwinds Extend, Macro Data to Set Market Tone
Upcoming macro data may sway sentiment. Preliminary U.S. Commerce Department estimates showed Q2 real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, rebounding from Q1’s -0.5%, driven by lower imports, higher consumer spending, and government outlays. Markets expect the second revision on August 28 to be adjusted down to ~3% or even 2.4%; a downward revision could reinforce easing expectations. The July PCE report (due August 29) is the last key inflation metric before the September FOMC meeting. Economists forecast core PCE to rise slightly YoY to 2.9% (from 2.8%), with a 0.3% monthly increase and headline PCE stable at ~2.6%. Higher-than-expected data may delay Fed rate-cut expectations, while softer figures would favor Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: This content does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation of any investment product.
