The next round of refined oil price adjustment is more likely to show an upward trend.

Li Yan, a crude oil analyst at Longzhong Information, told Jiemian News that looking ahead, progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks remains challenging, and geopolitical uncertainties are difficult to eliminate. Additionally, the positive impact of the traditional peak fuel consumption season in the U.S. continues.

"It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is more likely to be upward," Li Yan said.

Meng Peng stated that based on current crude oil prices, the recalculated crude oil change rate has started on a positive note. He pointed out that the recent continuous rebound in crude oil prices is a correction of the previously overly optimistic expectations regarding the peace talks. After the consecutive rebounds, the market continues to focus on European issues, and oil prices may continue to fluctuate.

Ma Jiancai, a refined oil analyst at JLC, told Jiemian News that the expectation of a Fed rate cut in next month's meeting has boosted the global fuel demand outlook. However, geopolitical uncertainties persist, and international oil prices may continue to experience wide fluctuations in the short term. The new pricing cycle has started with a positive change rate, and market signals are cautiously optimistic.

Regarding the domestic wholesale market, Ma Jiancai noted that the summer travel season is nearing its end, and people's travel radius is narrowing, leading to an expected decline in gasoline demand. In the latter half of the month, major sales policies focus on inventory clearance, making it difficult for the gasoline wholesale market to see significant improvement.

"Although diesel demand is recovering slowly, the peak restocking season in September and October is approaching, and middlemen are increasingly willing to stock up. It is expected that the bottom support for diesel prices will strengthen, and prices may push upward opportunistically in the short term."

Based on the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, the next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 9, 2025.