Will the Fed Actually Cut Rates in September?

　　Last Friday Eastern Time, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole hinted at the possibility of the Fed cutting rates at the September meeting. For the past several months, Powell had maintained a more hawkish and强硬 stance. Therefore, this signal triggered a fierce rally on Wall Street.

　　In his speech, Powell emphasized the increasing risks facing the U.S. labor market and issued a more moderate warning about the inflationary impact of tariffs, marking a shift in his tone.

　　As a result, Wall Street widely expects the Fed to cut rates next month. However, there still seems to be disagreement among officials within the Fed, meaning the path to a rate cut remains uncertain.

　　At the last FOMC meeting, only two voting members supported a rate cut, while the majority favored keeping rates stable.

　　Recently, public statements from officials, including Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, still appear to lean hawkish, suggesting that there may also be dissenting votes against a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.

　　JPMorgan economists such as Bruce Kasman believe that amid the divisions within the FOMC, although Powell holds only one vote, his influence as chairman is significant and could play a decisive role in the next vote.

　　The JPMorgan economists wrote in their report: "Recent guidance from several Fed speakers has been mixed, while the tone of the July meeting minutes was relatively hawkish... Thus, a consensus in September is unlikely, and Chairman Powell may hold the key to the meeting's outcome."

　　In fact, even if the Fed cuts rates next month, the pace of future rate cuts remains unclear. However, as the terms of Fed officials, including Powell, expire, Trump is expected to appoint more dovish officials in the future.