On August 25, global capital markets generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 1.51% on increased volume, the ChiNext Index up 3%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index up 1.94%. The Hang Seng Tech Index led the gains, rising 3.14%. The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) surged 4.2%, bringing its year-to-date increase to 29.79%.
Amid the market excitement, "cost-effectiveness" has become a calm choice for investors. Some institutions point out that even after two consecutive days of significant gains, the Hang Seng Tech Index remains "cheap" in this round of market activity. Data show that there has historically been a clear alternating rotation between the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index. Using the ChiNext Index, which hit a three-year high, as an "anchor," the Hang Seng Tech Index still has considerable room for a catch-up rally.
With the continuous disclosure of positive industry news, some institutions believe that the last factor affecting Hong Kong stocks' relative returns has been eliminated, and investors should actively go long on well-adjusted core assets. Against the backdrop of the artificial intelligence wave, Hong Kong stocks' "DeepSeek moment" may have arrived.
Among them, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) tracks an index that includes 30 leading Hong Kong tech companies, covering both software and hardware technology. Its holdings deeply focus on the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the AI industry chain. The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) tracks an index focused on the internet platform economy, with an AI concentration of 97% and a DeepSeek concentration of 86%, making it an excellent tool for investors to allocate to AI + internet core assets.
In a recent highly-discussed report, "Hong Kong Tech Will Catch Up," SDIC Securities provided an important perspective: using the ChiNext Index as an "anchor," the 60-day rolling return spread shows a clear historical alternating rotation between the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index.
Specifically, when the ChiNext Index's gains lead the Hang Seng Tech Index by 20 percentage points (pct), it mostly signals that the Hang Seng Tech Index is about to experience a catch-up rally (the exception was in 2021, when extreme institutional crowding in the new energy sector led to a fundamental disparity, causing the return spread to widen to over 30 pct). Currently, the return spread between the two has reached 18 pct—this data may imply that the Hang Seng Tech Index, which also has the attributes of "heavy institutional holdings" and "anti-barbell strategy," is likely to see a catch-up rally as the ChiNext Index leads significantly and approaches new highs.
Based on the above institutional views, the significant gains of the Hang Seng Tech Index on August 22 and 25 represent a "catch-up rally" driven by recent intensive catalysts in the tech industry. Additionally, in terms of valuation, as of the close on August 25, the Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio is "only" 21.77 times, ranking at the 23.46% percentile over the past five years, while its price-to-book ratio is only 3.13 times.