From August 21 to 23, the annual global central bank meeting was held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech was highly anticipated. Currently, money market traders expect an 80% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September this year.
On the eve of the meeting, investor wait-and-see sentiment intensified, with mixed performances across Asia-Pacific markets. Most Southeast Asian stock markets declined. The Thailand SET Index fell 0.48% weekly to 1,253.39 points; the Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index rose 1.04% weekly to 1,647.03 points; the Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index (JKSE) fell 0.5% weekly to 7,858.85 points; the Singapore Strait Times Index rose 0.53% weekly to 4,253.02 points; the Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index rose 1.34% weekly to 1,597.47 points; and the Philippines Manila Index fell 0.53% weekly to 6,281.58 points.
Other major Asia-Pacific stock indices also declined. The Japan Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.72% or 745.02 points weekly to 42,633.29 points; the South Korea KOSPI Index fell 1.76% weekly to 3,168.73 points; while the Australia S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.32% weekly to 8,967.4 points.
Zhang Yugui, Academic Committee Member of the International Finance Forum and Director of the Center for Financial Innovation and Development at Shanghai International Studies University, told a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the volatility in Asia-Pacific stock markets last week was somewhat related to the strong wait-and-see sentiment among market participants, with traders betting on a high probability of the Fed initiating an interest rate cut in September.
Wang Youxin, Head of the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed for the 21st Century Business Herald that the earlier cooling of expectations for a Fed rate cut aimed to avoid excessive market pricing. Influenced by this, market sentiment was relatively cautious last week, with international capital gradually reducing risk asset allocations, leading to declines in some global stock markets, including U.S. stocks and Asia-Pacific stocks. Additionally, factors such as accumulated adjustment pressures from the previous rapid rise in Asia-Pacific markets, the ongoing impact of U.S. tariff policies, and economic data from some Asia-Pacific countries falling short of expectations also contributed to the stock market declines.
"Subsequently, Asia-Pacific stock markets may experience a rebound, and suppressed market sentiment could quickly recover." Wang Youxin believes that expectations of global liquidity easing, the cross-border capital reset effect, a slight alleviation of trade policy uncertainties, and the gradual recovery of economic growth momentum will drive Asia-Pacific stock markets to fluctuate and strengthen. Stock markets with reasonable valuations, strong domestic demand resilience, or higher economic linkages with other economies in the region will have greater potential.