Only 40% of People Expect the Fed to Remain Independent

In the survey, 41% of the economists polled believe the next Fed Chair will uphold the Fed's independence and insist on executing monetary policy independently of the President; 37% think the Fed Chair will cooperate with the President; and 22% are uncertain.

Trump has been pushing hard for the Fed to cut interest rates, repeatedly "blasting" current Chair Jerome Powell for "moving too slowly." However, Powell and the FOMC have so far remained unmoved, still holding off on rate cuts due to concerns that tariffs could cause U.S. inflation to soar.

Nevertheless, given recent weakness in the U.S. job market and Trump's continuous criticisms, the economists surveyed still expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year in September and December, but they also anticipate that inflation could spike. Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe the "substantial" impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be felt.

Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, said: "The Fed is in a dilemma... Political pressure for rate cuts and fiscal stimulus is coming, while leading indicators for employment and inflation continue to strengthen."

Therefore, Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting may not be as dovish as the market hopes.

Nearly 70% of respondents believe Powell will maintain a neutral tone in his remarks, 14% think he will send a dovish signal, and another 14% believe he may not even discuss monetary policy or the economic outlook.

"Powell's speech at Jackson Hole may be more balanced than the market currently expects, as he needs to weigh the downside risks to employment against the upside risks to inflation," said Douglas Gordon, Managing Director at Russell Investments.