Are US Bond Yields Tending to Rise?

According to industry statistics, in the month following Powell's past seven Jackson Hole speeches, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by an average of 21 basis points. During the same period, the US dollar has appreciated by an average of 1.4%, while the S&P 500 index has declined by nearly 2%.

Over a longer time frame, from the annual symposium speeches in late August to the end of the year, although the stock and currency markets have performed well—with the S&P 500 index rising by an average of 2.3% and the US dollar appreciating by 0.4%—the 10-year US Treasury yield has still climbed by an average of 27 basis points.

The most prominent example is 2022, when Powell, in a speech titled "Monetary Policy and Price Stability," quoted former Fed Chair Paul Volcker, warning that households and businesses could face "pain" due to the tightening policies required to curb inflation.

In the following month, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 12%, the US dollar surged by 5%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared by 75 basis points.

In the month following Powell's three other Jackson Hole speeches (2018, 2021, and 2023), US bond yields also climbed by at least 20 basis points. In the 2023 instance, Powell once again indicated readiness to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.