Preface

In the first half of this year, the US stock market witnessed a wave of listings in the cryptocurrency sector. Following his second inauguration, President Trump signed an executive order on cryptocurrencies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shifted its approach from "enforcement first" to "cooperation-oriented," establishing a new Crypto Assets Task Force which accelerated the listing of a series of high-quality cryptocurrency-related assets. Following Galaxy Digital (GLXY) and Circle (CRCL), last week, Bullish (BLSH), the parent company of the Bullish Exchange and information service provider CoinDesk, also listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bullish, with its auspicious name (meaning optimistic or expecting price rises in finance), surged 84% on its first trading day, and its current stock price remains well above the IPO price. Is it still worth investing at this level? Pandoo believes that Bullish is more suitable for short-term trading rather than long-term holding. Bullish's IPO issue price ($37 per share) was not excessively high compared to Coinbase's valuation, and given the recent hot IPO market, there was ample room for short-term speculation. However, the current stock price (as of August 19, $60 per share) has already reflected most of the short-term speculative upside. Additionally, considering that another cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini, filed for an IPO on August 15th, if Gemini's IPO valuation offers better "value for money" compared to Bullish, it could drive speculative capital to rotate. Pandoo will provide a detailed breakdown of Bullish's fundamentals and valuation in this article.

I. Company Overview and Listing Performance

Bullish, a global digital asset platform focused on serving institutional investors, officially began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on August 13, 2025. Its listing process demonstrated strong market appeal. The final offering price was set at $37, higher than the initial range of $28-$31 and also exceeding the subsequently raised range of $32-$33. The fundraising scale reached $1.11 billion, with an overall valuation of $5.41 billion, a 29% increase from the initial valuation of $4.2 billion. The IPO size was 30 million shares, a 48% increase from the initial plan of 20.3 million shares. The subscription multiple exceeded 20 times, comparable to the subscription fervor seen previously with Circle.

Notably, renowned institutions such as BlackRock and ARK Investment Management expressed their intention to subscribe for up to $200 million in shares within the IPO price range, accounting for approximately 20% of the offering. This institutional endorsement is similar to the situation with Circle's IPO, which surged 168% on its first day. The lead underwriters for this IPO included J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Citigroup, and other internationally renowned investment banks.

II. Core Business Structure Analysis

Bullish's business system primarily consists of two major segments: Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, forming a comprehensive ecosystem covering digital asset trading and information services.

(I) Bullish Exchange: Compliance-Oriented Trading Infrastructure

Among comparable cryptocurrency exchanges, Bullish has relatively strong compliance but middling trading volume and product diversity. Bullish Exchange stands out in terms of compliance, having obtained regulatory licenses in multiple jurisdictions including the US, Germany, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar, and is continuously advancing license applications in other regions.

In terms of its trading system, it employs a single global order book model, covering spot, futures, and margin trading, and provides supporting liquidity and settlement services. Looking at trading volume data, Bullish's total trading volume in 2024 reached $546.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%. However, comparing Bullish to the leader among compliant exchanges, Coinbase, reveals a massive disparity in scale. Coinbase's trading volume during the same period was $1.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 148%. According to recent 24-hour platform trading volume rankings on CoinMarketCap, Bullish ranks between 10th and 15th.

Bullish's prospectus discloses that its 2024 global spot trading volume market share for Bitcoin (BTC/USDx) and Ethereum (ETH/USDx) was approximately $284.8 billion and $144.5 billion, accounting for 35% and 44% of the volume on comparable exchanges, respectively. This advantage in specific trading segments reflects its positioning towards institutional investors. From the perspective of trading spreads, a downward trend is evident, reflecting increasing competition among trading platforms. The average trading spread in Q1 2025 was 2.0 bps, a year-on-year decrease of 47%.

Compared to leading platforms, Bullish also lags in terms of trading product diversity. It currently offers over 70 spot trading pairs and over 45 perpetual futures trading pairs, far fewer than the hundreds offered by top platforms. The primary trading currencies generating revenue for Bullish are relatively concentrated; Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volume accounted for 82% of its total trading volume, whereas this figure is only 42% for Coinbase.

In terms of client structure, a high concentration of institutional clients is a notable characteristic. In Q1 2025, the top five clients contributed 83% of adjusted trading revenue and 69% of spot trading volume. This highly concentrated client structure reflects its focus on institutional investors but also introduces client dependency risks.

(II) CoinDesk: Benchmark in Digital Asset Information Services

CoinDesk, as Bullish's information service segment, primarily provides cryptocurrency-related value-added services such as indices, data, and insights, forming a diversified revenue model. The index business offers a range of tradable proprietary and single-asset benchmark indices, generating revenue through licensing fees. The data business provides comprehensive digital asset market data and analysis services, with subscriptions and service fees as the main revenue source. The insights business leverages the digital media platform Coindesk.com to generate revenue through advertising, sponsorships, and events.

Operating data shows this segment has strong market influence. Coindesk.com's total cumulative reach in 2024 exceeded 82 million. As of Q2 2025, the assets under management (AUM) covered by its indices reached $41 billion, and the Consensus summit has accumulated over 26,000 registrants. These figures highlight its leading position in the digital asset information services field.

III. Comparative Analysis with Coinbase

Comparing Bullish with the industry leader Coinbase provides a clearer understanding of its market positioning and competitive situation.

On the revenue side, Bullish's year-on-year growth rate is slower than Coinbase's. Although the gap in trading volume with Coinbase is narrowing, the gap in trading revenue is widening due to Bullish's narrowing trading spreads, a phenomenon worth noting. The revenue structures of the two are similar, with trading revenue accounting for over 60% of total revenue, and the remainder primarily consisting of subscription and service revenue.

On the profit side, Bullish's profit margin is significantly lower than Coinbase's. The adjusted EBITDA margins for 2024 were 24% and 53%, respectively. The difference stems from scale, operational capabilities, and the proportion of high-margin businesses.

Bullish recorded a loss in Q1 2025, mainly due to falling cryptocurrency prices leading to a decline in the fair value of investments and digital assets. Adjusted profit was $2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 50%. The rebound in cryptocurrency prices in Q2 and Q3 should help improve profits.

IV. Cryptocurrency Holdings

As of June 30, 2025, Bullish held over 20,000 Bitcoin and over 10,000 Ethereum. Calculated at market prices on August 19, the market value is close to $3 billion.

V. Shareholder Background and Management Structure

Bullish's shareholder lineup and management background provide significant support for its development. Major shareholder Brendan Blumer, as co-founder and CEO of Block.one, holds a 28.1% stake post-IPO. Block.one launched EOS in 2017, which became a shining star in the cryptocurrency market at the time but experienced decline after fundraising due to issues like resource allocation.

Among early investors, Peter Thiel participated in funding through Founders Fund and Thiel Capital and served as a senior advisor in the company's early days. His influence in technology and investment brings certain resources and attention to Bullish. However, his specific shareholding percentage and quantity have not been disclosed in public documents and are estimated to be less than 5%.

Regarding management, current CEO Thomas Farley holds a 3.6% stake. He previously served as COO of NYSE Group and President of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). His extensive experience in traditional financial markets helps Bullish achieve breakthroughs in compliance operations and institutional cooperation.

VI. Valuation Analysis and Investment Rationale

(I) Valuation Level

A Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method is suitable for Bullish, separating the core business (trading, service subscriptions) from its held cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency portion has a market value close to $3 billion. Referring to the mNAV multiple range of 1.3x to 1.5x for listed companies (excluding pure holding companies), the enterprise value for this part is approximately $4.2 billion. The core business can be valued by referencing Coinbase's EV / Trailing Four-Quarter Revenue multiple of 11.1x, applying a certain discount. Using a multiple of nearly 9x EV/Revenue, Bullish's core business corresponds to an enterprise value of approximately $2 billion. The sum of both parts is about $6.2 billion, while the current market cap reflects an enterprise value of approximately $8.6 billion, indicating short-term hot IPO speculative sentiment and that much of the upside potential is already reflected in the stock price.

(II) Investment Highlights

Strong institutional investor and shareholder backing: Provides narrative points for speculation and helps expand institutional clientele.
Asset reserves: Significant holdings of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have the potential to bring substantial fair value gains during an upward cycle in cryptocurrency prices.

(III) Risk Factors

Business concentration risk: Excessively high proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, high concentration of top clients; changes in single asset prices or client resources could significantly impact the company.

Profit volatility: Highly susceptible to cryptocurrency market conditions; the loss in Q1 2025 due to market decline is a typical example.
Intensifying industry competition: Continuously narrowing trading spreads compress profit margins, while facing pressure from both leading platforms and emerging competitors. For example, IPOs of new cryptocurrency exchanges like Gemini could also impact existing valuations.