The downward trend doesn't seem to have stopped yet.

On August 19th, the three major US stock indices moved lower during the session, closing mixed. The Nasdaq fell 1.46%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.59%, and the Dow Jones edged up 0.02%. Large-cap tech stocks mostly declined: Nvidia fell 3.50%, Meta dropped 2.07%, Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft fell between 1.75% and 1.42%, Google Class A declined 0.95%, and Apple dipped 0.14%. "There is no inflation, all signs point to the need for significant rate cuts. Being 'too late' is a disaster!"

Real estate is just a microcosm; what truly worries the market are the signals of a recession. The US housing market is performing sluggishly. Even during the peak season from April to June, the number of signed contracts for home sales across the US hit a new low since 2012. The housing supply-to-sales ratio climbed to 9.8 months in June. Historically, looking back at the 6 previous times this data exceeded 9, 5 were accompanied by an economic recession. Real estate is an industry with extremely high externalities; it is not only highly correlated with manufacturing and construction but also closely linked to other consumer goods transactions. Therefore, to some extent, its development is one of the risk signals for observing economic performance. Against this backdrop, the market is bound to develop a certain risk-off sentiment, with funds flowing from high-risk sectors into defensive sectors.

However, traders have a different view. Recently, there has been strong demand for positions related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which is closely tied to policy expectations. Just this week, traders increased their bets again. Options contracts betting on a 50 basis point rate cut in September surged to 325,000, with a premium cost of about $10 million. If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points as expected, these positions could yield profits of up to $100 million.

Market sentiment is also switching very quickly. The Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index showed that the market, which was in a state of greed just two days ago, abruptly turned to panic today. According to Deribit data, Bitcoin's 30-day options delta skew (put-call) soared to 12%, hitting its highest level in over four months, indicating extreme panic in the market. Santiment data shows that as of August 20th, pessimism on social media over the past 24 hours reached its highest level since the war panic triggered a sell-off on June 22nd.

The seemingly mystical "gap theory" is also gaining traction. As the gap between $4,098 and $4,230 for ETH on the CME was filled during this decline, the remaining gap lies in the $2,835 to $2,925 range, while BTC's gap is around $92,000, all of which are unnerving investors.

Interestingly, although Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to bleed lower, the decline in the altcoin market has not accelerated as it usually does, leading some to suggest this might be a precursor to an "altseason." But in reality, the current altcoin market is more in a state where it can't fall much further. After multiple rounds of washouts, most altcoins have reached low points. Investors are largely at a loss, buying interest is severely weak, and sellers are unwilling to discount further, hence the reduced magnitude of decline following the majors.

Crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf, who has over 110,000 followers on platform X, expressed his view: "This is just a correction for ETH after a 245% surge and breaking through the multi-year $4,000 resistance level. A healthy correction, likely just a retest of the breakout area."
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio even opened a small long position on ETH, stating he is looking for short-term opportunities in the $4,400–$4,600 range before reassessing whether to aim for higher levels.

Of course, there are exceptions. An analyst from BiyaPay stated that under the pressure of geopolitical news, they remain bearish on Bitcoin in the medium to long term, with a first downside target of $98,000, and $112,000 is a key support level in the short term.

Overall, even though the crypto market is performing sluggishly under macro-environmental and sentiment pressure, most analysts hold a relatively positive view. Highly optimistic analysts from Bernstein even predict that the current crypto bull market could last until 2027, with Bitcoin potentially rising to $150,000-$200,000 within the next year.

From a near-term perspective, since $112,000 was BTC's recent low point, this price indeed acts as a current support level, while ETH's key level is around $4,100. In fact, the purchase price of ETH by listed companies is not far beyond the current price range. According to calculations by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the two largest publicly traded companies holding significant amounts of ETH, BitMine and SharpLink Gaming, have cost bases of $3,730 and $3,478, respectively.

On the whole, ahead of the globally watched Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers' Symposium, volatility remains the main theme. Even if the market continues to bleed lower due to risk-off sentiment and other reasons, without a clear tone for the future market trend, the true market direction is difficult to ascertain. Currently, the market has rebounded slightly. BTC is now reporting $113,819, and ETH is now reporting $4,225.66.