AI Boom Continues: DGBAS Forecasts Next Year's Exports to Surpass $600 Billion

(Central News Agency Reporter Pan Ziyu, Taipei, August 15, 2025) Despite looming tariff concerns, Taiwan is benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, with exports experiencing explosive growth. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) estimates that this year's merchandise exports will reach $589.2 billion, setting a new record, and are projected to continue rising in 2026, breaking through the $600 billion mark.

The DGBAS released its economic forecast today, noting that strong demand for AI and emerging technology applications has driven both exports and investment, leading to a significant upward revision of the 2025 economic growth rate to 4.45%, a 1.35 percentage point increase from the May forecast of 3.10%.

Notably, the DGBAS estimates this year's merchandise exports will hit $589.2 billion, a 24.04% year-on-year increase. Building on this high base, next year's exports are expected to expand further to $602.1 billion, growing by 2.19%.

Tsai Yu-tai, Director of the DGBAS Department of Comprehensive Statistics, explained that previously concerning AI disruptions, such as the emergence of low-computing-cost DeepSeek, have not slowed global AI data center deployment. Additionally, supply bottlenecks for high-end ICT products have been resolved, making export prospects more optimistic and sustaining momentum into next year.

The DGBAS also noted that manufacturers' global strategies, including plans by major firms to expand production capacity in the U.S., are expected to effectively mitigate the impact of semiconductor tariffs.

While Taiwan's trade surplus with the U.S. has significantly widened due to AI demand—potentially drawing scrutiny from the U.S. and complicating negotiations—this remains a key uncertainty for economic outlook. Tsai acknowledged this risk but emphasized that AI demand remains robust. For now, the U.S. still relies on Taiwan for advanced chip manufacturing, packaging and testing, and related server production.