On August 4, increasing downward pressure on the U.S. economy fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut, coupled with dovish comments from the central bank, driving gold prices higher. COMEX gold futures briefly touched $3,439 before a slight pullback at the close. By the end of trading, COMEX gold futures rose 0.85% to $3,428.60 per ounce. By the close of the Asian market, the ChinaAMC Gold ETF (518850) gained 1.26%, with inflows of 427 million yuan over the past seven trading days, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) surged 4.49%.

Recently, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that with growing evidence of a softening labor market and no signs of sustained tariff-induced inflation, the timing for a rate cut is approaching. Daly noted that two 25-basis-point rate cuts within the year still seem like an appropriate recalibration, emphasizing that the focus is whether cuts will occur in September and December, not whether they will happen at all.

Ruida Futures analysis pointed out that the Fed’s Daly sent dovish signals, indicating a cooling labor market and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation, making it highly likely the FOMC will implement two or more rate cuts this year. The market has fully priced in a Fed rate cut by October, with the probability of a September cut rising sharply. Although risks of future inflation persist in a high-tariff environment, the significant weakening of the labor market may signal upcoming economic softness. If next week’s CPI data does not show a sharp increase, the FOMC may gradually open the door to rate cuts starting in September, with the extent depending on future inflation trends. The continued decline in the U.S. dollar and long-term Treasury yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, potentially supporting gold prices.