7. Bitcoin is called digital gold. Should you invest in Bitcoin, gold, or real estate? (A fan’s question, unrelated to blockchain.)

a. "Houses are for living, not speculation" is a fundamental national policy. If it’s for housing needs, you can buy anytime. Prices in first-tier cities aren’t high now. Based on the experience of relatives and friends, managing more than five properties is already quite troublesome. The life of a landlord as portrayed online isn’t as comfortable as it seems—those stories of lying back and earning money are just myths.

b. Gold is something my mother likes to buy; it seems more stable. I can’t offer advice on this.

8. What was Bitcoin’s peak in 2021?

$40,000–60,000. This was my earlier estimate. It’s around $30,000 now. Some say it could reach $60,000–80,000 in 2021, or even break $100,000 or $1 million. I stand by my view.

9. Why don’t you recommend mining even though the electricity cost for S19 and S19pro is less than 30% or even 25%, and the annual electricity rate is around ¥0.35–0.38 per kWh?

Well, I don’t recommend it for ordinary retail investors. Large investors or those with ample resources can ignore this advice.

The best time for mining has mostly passed (joining in early 2020 or October–November 2020 and persisting was lower risk). Mining is a heavy-asset investment—you need 10P of hashrate to reach a certain scale and negotiate more detailed, stable plans with mining farms. In other words, you’d need 100 units of S19 95T or S19pro 110T (let’s round it to 100T for simplicity). Only then will larger,正规 mining farms seriously talk to you. This is the entry threshold for miners, and there are many well-funded individuals or institutions in the industry. These institutions aren’t chasing ultra-high returns; they’re satisfied with 20–30% annualized returns. Many companies serving institutional investors face similar realities.

Do you know the damage rate when shipping miners from Xinjiang to Sichuan? Do you know if there are professionals to repair broken miners? Do you know the qualifications of the hosting farm? A friend in mining pools had hundreds of thousands worth of miners confiscated by local police in 2018 right after buying and moving them into a farm. Timing and resources are hard for individual investors to navigate. Another friend invested ¥13 million in miners, only to find holding coins would’ve been more profitable. They were charged ¥50 for a power cable (which costs ¥10), among other overpriced parts. If you must mine, stick to Bitcoin—GPU mining is even trickier because the hardware breaks easily. Newer models aren’t great either; out of 100 miners, 3–5 might always be down. It’s slightly better now, but they’re still not durable, and shipping damage rates are higher.

This also answers a fan’s question today about whether I have resources. I do, and they’re professional, but now isn’t the right time to profit from this.

10. Is Bitcoin deflationary?

No. The total supply is capped at 21 million, and the daily issuance halves every four years, so it’s considered a deflationary economic model. In reality, Bitcoin’s supply increases daily. After the May 2020 halving, daily issuance was about 900 coins. After the next halving (2024), it’ll drop to 450.

11. What’s most important to watch out for in a bull market?

Don’t aggressively borrow to invest. Sayings like “Go all in, turn a bike into a motorcycle” or “Gamble, turn a motorcycle into a Land Rover” are just jokes. Reduce positions when needed, focus on work, exercise, and enjoying life. Losing money in a bull market is much fiercer than in a bear market—in a bear market, you lose your own money; in a bull market, you lose borrowed money. Don’t worry about missing gains; worry about losses.

12. What’s your take on investing in small DeFi tokens?

Risks are rising. Smart contracts haven’t matured over time, and code vulnerabilities are frequent. Better suited for short-term speculation.