Moore's Law states that the number of components on an integrated circuit doubles every 18-24 months while keeping costs constant, with performance also doubling. In other words, computing power per dollar more than doubles within this timeframe. This law reveals the pace of information technology advancement. Although this trend has persisted for over half a century, Moore's Law should be considered an observation or projection rather than a physical or natural law. It was projected to continue until at least 2015 or 2020. However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors indicated slowing growth by late 2013, with transistor density now expected to double only every three years.
As early as 1959, Fairchild Semiconductor pioneered planar transistors, followed by planar integrated circuits in 1961. This planar manufacturing process uses photolithography on polished silicon wafers to create circuit components like diodes, transistors, resistors, and capacitors. Increasing photolithographic precision directly enhances component density, demonstrating tremendous potential. Thus, planar technology became recognized as the "key to the entire semiconductor industry" and the technical foundation for Moore's Law.
In 1965, Gordon Moore, then director of Fairchild's R&D lab, authored an observational report titled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits" for Electronics magazine's 35th anniversary. While plotting data, Moore discovered a remarkable trend: each new chip contained roughly twice as many components as its predecessor, released at 18-24 month intervals. If continued, computing power would grow exponentially over time. This observation—later termed Moore's Law—has maintained extraordinary accuracy. Researchers found it applies not only to memory chips but also precisely describes processor capability and hard drive capacity development. The law became fundamental for industrial performance predictions. Over 26 years, transistor counts increased over 3,200-fold—from 2,300 in Intel's 1971 4004 processor to 7.5 million in Pentium II processors.
In 2013, scientists applied Moore's Law to study life complexity on Earth. Their results suggested organic life predates Earth itself. By substituting transistors with nucleotides (life's genetic building blocks) and circuits with genetic material, calculations indicated life potentially emerged 10 billion years ago—far older than Earth's estimated 4.5 billion years. Researchers proposed bacterial-like organisms or simple nucleotides from ancient galactic regions might have arrived via comets or asteroids during solar system formation—a hypothesis called panspermia. Some scientists believe life may still be reaching Earth through this mechanism.
Moore's Law occasionally applies to green technologies. Consider DNA sequencers—a core green technology tool. In 1977, Fred Sanger first sequenced a complete viral genome (5,000 base pairs); 25 years later, scientists sequenced the human genome (3 billion base pairs). While base-pair output followed Moore's Law, sequencing costs didn't scale equivalently—human genome sequencing far exceeded viral genome costs. Modern sequencers, though technologically marvelous, remain bulky and expensive, employing batch-processed wet chemistry methods with reagent costs rivaling equipment expenses. Biology now requires single-molecule sequencing—processing individual molecules via physical rather than chemical methods. Developing such instruments falls to physicists applying "gray technology" to support green tech. Those who invent reliable implementations will make profound biological contributions.