Insights on Stock Selection from a Trading Prodigy

Big winners ("dark horses") in the stock market fall into two categories: long-term steady gainers and short-term explosive runners.

For a stock to double in price, it must meet the following condition: Its monthly and weekly moving averages must converge and move sideways or slightly upward. The longer this convergence lasts and the tighter it becomes, the stronger the eventual breakout will be! Only a super-large market manipulator ("big player") can shape such a perfectly regular and orderly chart pattern—this is an indisputable fact. This is the most critical analytical and operational principle for top-tier institutional traders worldwide, and it is the key to their lifelong outperformance. Conversely, if the weekly and monthly moving averages trend downward, it indicates the big player is strategically distributing shares. Any occasional rallies during this phase are merely traps to lure buyers for exit purposes—there will be no doubling in price as retail investors might hope. Followers must be fully aware of this.

So, how can we identify short-term explosive runners poised for an imminent breakout in real-world trading? The following key points will help you clearly distinguish between long-term steady doublers and short-term explosive doublers, maximizing your capital efficiency:

A. Turnover Rate: For a short-term explosive runner, the turnover rate must typically reach 30%–40% by the first day of abnormal price-volume action. Only by aggressively accumulating shares during the rapid rise on the first and second days can the big player secure over 60% of the float, achieving full control. This sets the stage for a relentless rally that squeezes out sidelined investors.

B. Chart Setup: The 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages must form a textbook-perfect bullish alignment, signaling an impending explosive rally. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average on weekly and monthly charts must already be trending upward. These signs confirm the big player’s thorough preparation for the upcoming surge—the "cannon is loaded."

C. Relative Strength: The stock must outperform the broader market recently, proving its rise is driven by the big player’s active attack, not mere market momentum.

D. Momentum Angle: The 5-day moving average should rise at a steep angle, accompanied by sustained volume expansion, demonstrating the big player’s unwavering commitment and exceptional strength.

E. Technical Harmony: Both the chart patterns and technical indicators must align in a multi-timeframe bullish setup without contradictions.

F. Narrative Fuel: The stock often carries a vague but compelling theme with massive market appeal, allowing the big player to amplify hype and fuel speculative frenzy during the rally.