According to reports, traders on prediction markets are increasing their bets that more international turmoil could follow US President Trump's surprise attack on Venezuela. On these prediction platforms, traders have recently begun placing funds on where the White House might turn its attention next. Such bets have noticeably heated up as Wall Street and the American public observe the Trump administration shifting toward faster, more aggressive international strikes.
In a report to clients on Monday, Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote, "For investors, the most important takeaway is that Trump has become more comfortable and confident in using military force. The first year of his second term has been characterized by abundant energy and high-risk appetite, and this trait has now extended to the use of military action."
On the prediction platform Kalshi, the probability of Trump "reclaiming the Panama Canal" by early 2029 has jumped to over 35%, compared to less than 30% last weekend. Last year, Trump stated that he would not rule out using military force to regain control of this crucial waterway connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Meanwhile, the probability of the US "controlling any part of Greenland" rose to 38% by noon on Tuesday, up about 8 percentage points from mid-last week, having soared to over 46% last weekend. On the Kalshi platform, the total amount bet on these two questions has approached $2.5 million. Another larger market, measured by betting volume, shows the probability of Trump "purchasing at least a portion" of Greenland hovering around 25%, higher than the less than 20% level last weekend.
Reports indicate that on Tuesday local time, a senior US official stated that Trump and his team are discussing multiple options for acquiring Greenland, including purchasing the territory from Denmark or establishing a free association agreement with Greenland, with military means also listed as one of the options. The official claimed that Trump hopes to complete the acquisition of Greenland within his current term, adding that this issue "will not disappear." The White House views acquiring Greenland as a national security priority, and despite objections from some NATO leaders, Trump remains actively engaged in seeking an agreement.
Since taking office in 2025, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to obtain Greenland and has stated that he does not rule out the use of force. In an interview earlier this month, Trump suggested that Venezuela might not be the last country subject to US interference, adding, "We absolutely need Greenland."
Trump's remarks have sparked strong opposition from Denmark and other European countries. On January 6, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement emphasizing that Greenland belongs to its people and that only Denmark and Greenland have the right to decide on matters concerning themselves. Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, stated that following Trump's latest comments, the Danish government has entered "full crisis mode."
Additionally, on the Polymarket platform, several new prediction markets have emerged in recent days, each with tens of thousands of dollars in bets, concerning potential US strikes against Colombia or an invasion of Cuba. Trump has previously issued threats against both countries. Meanwhile, on the Kalshi platform, bettors began predicting over the weekend whether Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down before next year. The current probability of this event occurring is approximately 54%, with the market size nearing $1 million. Last year, Trump approved a bombing campaign against Iran, drawing the US into the conflict between Iran and Israel. Last week, Trump threatened that if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, the US will "hit them hard."
