Are Low-Position Sectors About to Rally?

Driven by positive catalysts, China’s A-share market saw all three major indices rise today, with the benchmark hitting a new yearly high.

• The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.18% to close at 3,461.15.

• The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10,534.58.

• The ChiNext Index climbed 1.90% to 2,164.09.

Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets totaled just 1.3 trillion yuan today, shrinking by 67.2 billion yuan from the previous session—another day of rising prices on declining volume. With no incremental capital entering the market, it was yet another round of retail investors cannibalizing each other in a fiercely competitive environment.

From a technical perspective, if the volume continues to shrink, this level could form a small double-top distribution pattern. Only a surge in trading volume can break out into a reversal rally.

Are Low-Position Sectors About to Rally?

According to the Sopu Big Model algorithm tracking main capital flows:

This month, short-term institutional funds have concentrated for the first time on the electronics industry chain, triggering a broad-based rally with over an 80% probability of gains within the sector.

The electronic equipment sector saw 14 stocks hit limit-ups or rise by more than 10%. Among them, Jin’an International emerged as the leading company rallying from a low position.

The sector’s surge today was driven by two key catalysts:

1. Signs of a U.S.-China Trade War Truce

• The U.S. government reportedly revoked a restrictive licensing requirement and plans to resume ethane exports to China.

• Siemens announced that the U.S. Commerce Department has notified the world’s top three chip design software providers—Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens—that the prior rule mandating government licenses for their China operations has been lifted.

  • Siemens confirmed full restoration of access for Chinese clients to its software and technology.

  • Synopsys and Cadence stated they are gradually resuming related services.
    While the scope and duration of the easing remain unclear, this move resolves a "critical bottleneck" for China’s chip design firms. The resumption of exports by these three companies signals a potential near-term loosening of EDA (Electronic Design Automation) restrictions, offering tangible policy relief for Chinese firms reliant on such tools.

2. Apple’s Foldable iPhone Enters Prototype Development

• Apple’s foldable iPhone entered the P1 (Prototype 1) development phase in June, with P2 and P3 stages to follow—each typically lasting about two months.

• The prototype process is expected to conclude by late 2025, with a potential market launch in the second half of 2026.

AI Penetration and Wearable Demand Surge
In the first half of 2025, the consumer electronics sector is characterized by "dual drivers of policy and AI":

• China’s national subsidies have effectively stimulated mid-range demand, driving structural recovery in smartphones and tablets.

• AI integration is accelerating across devices, pushing PCs and smartphones toward intelligence, while new-form products like AI glasses commercialize rapidly.
  The latter half of the year will hinge on "policy tapering and technological breakthroughs," with growth sustainability determined by emerging market expansion and ecosystem synergy.