
Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials boosted market sentiment. On Friday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rebounded after a sharp drop, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 500 points, a gain of about 1.1%. However, Friday's rebound was insufficient to offset the previous sharp declines. The Nasdaq fell over 2.7% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline and the longest weekly losing streak since March. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell over 1.9% for the week.
Popular tech stocks were mixed. Oracle fell 5.8%, while Nvidia, Microsoft, TSMC, Tesla, and AMD fell over 1%. On the gainers' side, Google rose over 3%, Intel and Micron rose over 2%, and Apple and Amazon rose over 1%.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.23%. Zhongjin Ke Industry surged over 21%, NetEase Youdao and Canadian Solar rose over 5%, Nio rose over 3%, while Tencent Music and Li Auto rose over 2%.
Precious metals fell. Spot gold fell 0.26%, down 0.44% for the week; COMEX gold futures rose 0.1% but fell 0.7% for the week. Spot silver fell 1.3%, down 1.1% for the week, while COMEX silver futures fell 1.9% for the week.
Crude oil futures generally fell, with both WTI crude and ICE Brent crude down over 1%.
Cryptocurrencies fell broadly with soaring trading volumes. As of around 6:30 Beijing Time on November 22, Bitcoin fell over 3.4% in the past 24 hours, with trading volume surging 44%; HYPE fell nearly 5%, with trading volume skyrocketing 166%. Nearly 360,000 market participants were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $1.804 billion.
On the news front, according to Securities Times, the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials brought hope to the pessimistic market.
Fed Williams stated that, given the current slightly restrictive policy, he still believes there is room for rate cuts in the near term. Progress on inflation has stalled but is expected to reach the 2% target by 2027. As the FOMC Vice Chair with a permanent vote, Williams' dovish remarks signaled to investors that the Fed could still cut rates at the December meeting.
Fed Milan also stated that if his vote becomes the deciding one, he would support a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Some Fed officials still expressed opposition to rate cuts. Dallas Fed President Logue expects the Fed's balance sheet to resume expansion soon. However, she also stated that another rate cut in December seems unlikely.
After Williams' speech, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month in federal funds futures exceeded 70%, a significant increase from less than 40% the previous day.
Looking ahead, after the strong gains, U.S. stock movements may become more moderate. Dalio pointed out that the current proportion of U.S. stock wealth to the total money supply is nearing historical peaks seen just before the 1929 crash and during the 2000s dot-com bubble, implying that the real return (after inflation, etc.) of U.S. stocks over the next decade could be close to zero.
