Steven Chu: Surging AI Energy Consumption Demands Compact, On-Demand Power Sources

On November 5, the sub-forum "High-Quality Development of New Energy Storage to Promote Global Energy Transition" of the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum was held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai). In his presentation, former U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize laureate in Physics Steven Chu stated that in 2015, pumped hydro storage accounted for about 95% of global electricity storage, but this landscape is changing rapidly due to the rapid development and cost reduction of power grids and batteries. Data he presented showed that global battery energy storage capacity has jumped from 3.5 GW in 2015 to 69 GW in 2024. He mentioned, "China plans to add about 260 GW of battery storage by 2030, which is a remarkable plan."

Chu admitted that the development of battery technology has exceeded expectations. "Five years ago, I predicted that the energy density of power batteries might double by 2030, but in reality, this goal has been achieved ahead of schedule." Looking at the trend from 2020 to 2030, electric vehicle battery prices are falling sharply, and China is also leading in the learning curve for price reduction. Against the backdrop of growing demand for raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt, and high prices for nickel and cobalt, the entire industry is shifting towards lithium iron phosphate batteries, and this technology route is becoming the standard for current electric vehicles.

He also mentioned that increased electrification may raise the demand for copper, necessitating a strong push for copper recycling and the search for alternative conductive materials. Currently, carbon materials like carbon nanotubes have been proven in principle to achieve high conductivity per unit weight. At the same time, underground carbon resources are very abundant; if they can be converted into highly conductive materials to replace copper, it would be crucial for the energy transition.

Facing the challenge of surging energy consumption in data centers driven by artificial intelligence, Chu emphasized that even with cost-effective large-scale battery energy storage systems and hydrogen technology, the world still needs compact, "on-demand" power sources. He predicts that by 2035, the share of electricity consumption by U.S. data centers will increase from the current 3.5% to 9%. "The current scientific options are limited to coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission. It should be added that the commercial use of nuclear fusion energy is at least 40 years away."