After the U.S. market closed on the 30th local time, Strategy, the leading Bitcoin DAT stock, released its third-quarter financial report. The report shows that Strategy's Q3 revenue was $3.9 billion, with a net profit of $2.8 billion, and diluted earnings per share were $8.42.

As of local time on October 26, 2025, Strategy held a total of 640,808 Bitcoins, with a total value of $47.44 billion. The cost per Bitcoin rose to $74,032. Year-to-date in 2025, Bitcoin's yield is 26%, with earnings reaching $12.9 billion. Strategy's CFO Andrew Kang stated that based on the prediction of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, Strategy's full-year 2025 operating income is projected to be $34 billion, net profit $24 billion, and diluted earnings per share $80.

Strategy's Bitcoin-related data is largely public and won't cause excessive market reaction. However, influenced by today's Bitcoin price rebound and the company's optimistic outlook, Strategy's stock price rebounded in both after-hours trading yesterday and pre-market trading today. At the time of writing, the MSTR price had rebounded from yesterday's closing price of $254.57 to around $272.65 in pre-market trading.

According to the financial report, Strategy obtained a net proceeds of $5.1 billion in the three months ending September 30 through common stock, STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRC share sale programs. As of October 26, Strategy still had a financing capacity of $42.1 billion.

It is worth noting that the current Bitcoin price has risen more than 40% from its low this year, while MSTR's closing price yesterday was only about 6% away from its yearly low. Although the after-hours and pre-market stock price movements indicate short-term market approval of this earnings report, investors have actually begun to worry about Strategy's, or rather, the DAT company model.

mNAV Nearing the Survival Line

According to StrategyTracker data, Strategy's mNAV (i.e., the ratio of market capitalization to the total value of Bitcoin held) has reached 1.04. Even calculated based on the diluted number of shares, this figure is only 1.16, very close to 1. If the mNAV reaches or falls below 1, it means buying the company's stock is no more valuable than directly buying the corresponding cryptocurrency.

During the earnings call in late July this year, Strategy promised, "it would not issue additional MSTR common shares when the mNAV is below 2.5x, except to pay preferred stock dividends or debt interest." But just two weeks later, it removed this restriction in a filed 8-K and added an exception clause: "the company may continue to issue shares below 2.5x mNAV if it deems the issuance beneficial."

In the recent financial report, Strategy also reinterpreted the rules for common stock ATM offerings:

Although issuing common shares when mNAV is below 2.5 is still prioritized for paying debt interest and preferred stock dividends, the reality is that common stock ATM financing can now also be used to buy Bitcoin when mNAV is below 2.5. Furthermore, the methods for financing Bitcoin purchases are no longer limited to common stock ATM. The mNAV calculated by Strategy in its official data is 1.25, higher than third-party statistics. Although it has a more complex calculation method, ordinary investors actually focus more on the simple ratio of total market cap to the total value of Bitcoin held, which is 1.04.

Additionally, Strategy has retained the possibility of adjusting the mNAV baseline, undoubtedly adding more variables. Strategy's Bitcoin purchases in the first three quarters of this year were 81,785, 69,140, and 42,706 respectively. The steady rise in Bitcoin's price was accompanied by a gradual decline in purchase volume; Strategy had actually foreseen the potential problem long ago.

If Strategy's mNAV falls below 1, it could deal a significant blow to the overall value of DATs. A few days ago, Ethereum DAT company ETHZilla chose to sell $40 million worth of Ethereum to conduct a stock buyback, aiming to pull the mNAV value back. On the same day, the world's second-largest Bitcoin DAT company, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, also announced a stock buyback plan. Although this plan does not involve selling held Bitcoin, the pressure from mNAV has led the world's top two public Bitcoin buyers to slow down.

Kicked out of the Nasdaq 100 Index?

Just during the trading session of U.S. stocks last night Beijing time, some investors in the Web3 community speculated based on MSTR's recent weak performance that Strategy might be kicked out of the Nasdaq 100 Index by the end of this year.

Strategy was officially selected as a component of the Nasdaq 100 Index in December last year, which also caused its stock price to surge briefly above $500. Although Bitcoin's price later hit new highs, MSTR did not break through that previous high.

But in fact, the possibility of Strategy being removed from the Nasdaq 100 components this year is almost zero. For a component stock to be removed from the Nasdaq 100, besides fundamental situations like transforming into a financial company, changing listing location, insufficient liquidity, or violating listing rules, it only gets "kicked out" if its market cap ranking directly falls outside the top 125, or it consistently ranks outside the top 100, or its weight remains below 0.1% of the index's total market capitalization for two consecutive months, and there is a suitable replacement.

According to QQQ holdings, Strategy's current weight is approximately 0.37%, and its market cap has not fallen outside the top 100. The index adjustment at year-end is based on data from the end of October, so it seems Strategy is still safe this year.

There was a wave of enthusiasm for DAT companies earlier this year. However, the author must remind that the玩法 of such companies is essentially based on a market consensus rather than a financial mechanism. A company's market capitalization can indeed be lower than the value of the assets it holds. An article published by the Daily Economic News in August this year provided a good example: Sohu, an early "orphan" of the internet, had a market capitalization for a long time that was less than the cash it held and even less valuable than the office buildings it constructed.

Strategy can still keep the game going because new entrants continue to participate in the DAT company game, and its "pioneer" status ties down many vested interests. However, if the market one day suddenly stops recognizing this "game mechanism," the strategy where investors could steadily buy new shares based on the stable ratio of company market cap to Bitcoin value and cash out at higher positions would fail. The risks involved might be greater than most imagine.

Even if such a mechanism can persist, the sustained frenzy around AI potentially diverting attention and funds, leading to continued Bitcoin price weakness, would also put significant short-term pressure on Strategy. The DAT model continuing can be quite positive for industry development, but one must always guard against the short-term risks brought by stress tests.

After all, the $2.8 billion profit is just investment income, and there are no permanent winners in investment.