Dow's Theorem II: The Market Efficiency Theorem

  • 2025-07-14

Market prices already reflect all relevant market information. Dow's Theorem II indicates that Dow belongs to the school of thought that believes "the market is always right." It also shows that the Dow Theory's understanding of market efficiency issues has significant similarities with the Efficient Market Hypothesis in modern investment theory (Dow's Theorem II explains one of the three major premises of technical analysis: "Market prices discount everything").

 

To comprehend Dow's Theorem II, the following aspects should be noted:

1. The history of the past century since the creation of Dow's Theorem tends to support the fundamental view of Dow's Theorem II.

 

2. The basis of financial market trading is not the information people already possess, but rather their expectations of future events. Corollary II derived from Dow's Theorem II is particularly worthy of investors' attention. Since market prices are records of completed transactions and already incorporate all published relevant market information, any published data or written information no longer holds investment reference value. The primary activities of most investors in the market revolve around published information, such as media, stock commentaries, journals, etc. However, such information can no longer serve as the foundation for investment transactions. Therefore, from a methodological perspective, most investors in the market are destined not to become the ultimate winners.

Go Back Top