Storage Market Faces Most Severe Shortage in Over 30 Years, AI Identified as Root Cause

At the storage product trading market in Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei, Li Jun, a merchant with years of experience in storage trade, recently faces dozens of inquiries daily about "no stock available." "Compared to the 'clearance sale wave' in 2022, the current market feels like it's on a completely different track. Previously, only DDR4 memory occasionally faced shortages, but now even the most basic 1TB SATA interface SSD requires pre-ordering two weeks in advance, with prices nearly 30% higher than three months ago. It's worth noting that during the same period in 2023, this SSD was still running 'buy one, get one free' promotions."

This shortage is not unique to the Chinese market. According to a Digtimes report, despite suppliers and buyers being on holiday during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival break, market demand for memory inquiries remained strong, leading to rapid price increases in the spot market. Over the past week, DDR4 DRAM prices have risen by over 12%, while spot prices for DDR5 16GB have increased by 8.5%. Several storage module manufacturers, such as Adata, Team Group, and Apacer, have noted the strong upward trend in market prices and have decided to temporarily suspend quotations. They will determine prices after the long holiday when the market trend becomes clearer.

This situation is expected to intensify. The latest data from TrendForce indicates that general-purpose DRAM prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are projected to increase by 8% to 13% compared to the previous quarter. If HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is included, the increase could reach 13% to 18%. The contract prices for various NAND Flash products in the fourth quarter are also expected to rise across the board, with an average increase of 5% to 10%.

Third-party agency CFM Flash Market believes that, driven by upstream resource controls and frequent inquiries from the demand side, storage manufacturers are generally in no rush to accept orders and are strictly controlling shipment schedules. The current attitude of the supply side remains the main factor influencing the entire storage market. If resource constraints persist, the supply-demand balance will further tilt toward sellers, strengthening storage manufacturers' tendency to hoard and hold back stock. Consequently, prices for finished storage products will continue to rise.

Wallace Kou, General Manager of Silicon Motion Technology, recently stated bluntly, "There will be a major storage shortage next year. I advise everyone to prepare early, especially since a NAND shortage is inevitable."