Continuous interest rate cuts are not a foregone conclusion.

  • 2025-10-10


Continuous interest rate cuts are not a foregone conclusion.

"We have to make a decision at the next meeting: whether to lower interest rates further, which might help alleviate labor market pressures but could pose more risks to inflation," Barr said during the Q&A session following his speech. "This makes the decision very difficult."

According to the latest pricing in the interest rate futures market, traders believe there is about an 80% probability that the Fed will cut rates two more times this year (each by 25 basis points). However, Barr's remarks suggest there may be opposition within the Fed's policy committee regarding this path.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid, like Barr, voted in favor of a rate cut last month, but in his speech on Monday, he also questioned the necessity of further Fed rate cuts.

Schmid stated, "I believe the current policy stance is only slightly restrictive, and I think that is appropriate."

The Fed's third-in-command, New York Fed President Williams, supported further easing in an interview on Thursday, citing labor market risks. Meera, who just joined the Fed Board of Governors last month, urged the central bank to accelerate the pace of rate cuts, with her forecasting model suggesting the Fed should implement a series of aggressive 50-basis-point cuts.

Since the beginning of the month, the U.S. government shutdown has undoubtedly complicated the Fed's decision-making. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the September non-farm payrolls report last week, and the inflation data scheduled for release next week may also be delayed. Before the "blackout period" preceding the next Fed FOMC meeting on October 28-29 begins, officials have only about one week left to publicly elaborate on their monetary policy views.

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